[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Sebastien, at 24/0300 UTC, is near
34.4N 43.1W. Sebastien is moving NE at 27 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 994 mb with maximum sustained wind
speeds up to 55 kt and gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen 350 nm in the eastern semi-circle. A line of
thunderstorms are seen SE of the storm from 28N-33N between 39W-
43W. Sebastian is expected to continue with the fast northeastward
motion for the next couple of days. A slow decrease in the maximum
winds is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is
forecast to become post-tropical late on Sunday and dissipate early
next week. The Public Advisories for Sebastien are available via
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. The Forecast/Advisories
for Sebastien are available via the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 43W from 11N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen along the wave axis from 5N-11N between 41W-
46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 61W from 13N
southward and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen
in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues at that point to 02N30W
to 04N41W, then west of the tropical wave from 04N44W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along the monsoon
trough near the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone between 09W-13W.
A line of showers and thunderstorms are about 100 nm north of the
ITCZ from 03N-06N between 15W-29W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 29W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the central and western Gulf,
entering the waters from the FL border near 29N85W and
stretching southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to the coast
of Mexico near 20N96W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are
within 100 nm of the front. A pre frontal trough near 160 nm SE
of the front is producing scattered showers and tstorms N of 27N
across the Florida Peninsula to 84W. In the Bay of Campeche, a
second trough is present producing scattered showers in the
vicinity of the trough. Surface ridging is seen in the eastern
Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts gentle SW winds in the eastern
Gulf with moderate NW winds behind the front.

A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to near Tuxpan,
Mexico will reach from near Ft. Myers, Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Sun morning, and from the Straits of Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Sun Night while weakening. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting NE of the
basin by early Tue. The next cold front is expected to move into
the NW Gulf by early Wed, weakening and stalling in the northern
Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively quiet weather is seen across the basin with upper high
centered near the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted from 13N-15N between 64W-70W. Latest scatterometer
depicts fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, gentle
trades in the southern basin, and moderate to fresh trades across
the rest of the basin.

Moderate trades are expected across the basin tonight and Sun,
with northerly winds across the NW Caribbean on Sun. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through
Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night through Thu as the
pressure gradient tightens. Strong to near gale force winds are
forecast near the coast of Colombia Tue night into Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends south of T.S. Sebastien from 17N56W to a 1012 mb
low near 22N51W to 28N45W. Scattered showers and tstorms extend
from 19N-28N between 45W-50W. An upper level low near 24N33W is
bringing an area of scattered showers from 20N-30N between 17W-
30W. High pressure dominates the rest of the area anchored by a
1019 mb high in the western Atlantic near 28N68W and a 1022 mb
high in the eastern Atlantic near 30N27W.

1019 mb high pressure dominates the forecast region. This system
will shift eastward tonight as a cold front reaches the NW waters.
The front will extend from 31N77W to central Florida by Sun
morning, and from 31N68W to the Straits of Florida by Sun night.
Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front
mainly N of 28N. The front will stall from 30N65W to 27N75W to
western Cuba on Tue while weakening. Another cold front is
forecast to move across the N waters on Thu.

$$
MMT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net