[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front off the coast of northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to
the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force
north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Sat.
The forecast calls for winds 30-40 kt with seas building up to
14 feet. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the region
Sun and Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in
the marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas,
increasing to locally very rough seas in the southern part are
also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 33W from 03N-14N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave
axis from 04N-11N between 24N-33W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is W of the wave axis from 02N-10N between 27W-
44W.

A tropical wave with axis along 54W from 04N-15N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean with axis along 74W and
S of 19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with axis along 83W S
of 17N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-17N between 81W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N32W,
then resumes west of a wave near 06N35W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 44W-
50W and from 06N-12N between 57W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from St Augustine Florida near 30N81W to
27N90W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N96W to N of Tampico
Mexico near 22N97W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W
to 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough from
19N-21N between 91W-94W. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong
north winds behind the front.

A cold front currently over the northern Gulf will continue
moving south, bringing strong winds and building seas in its
wake. By this afternoon, the front will extend from near Fort
Myers Florida to Veracruz Mexico. Near gale force N winds are
expected off the coast of Mexico this afternoon through Sat
night. Mon night, a stronger cold front will move off the Texas
coast. Gale force winds are expected over the far western Gulf
Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds across the
east-central Caribbean and fresh to strong in the central
Caribbean north of Colombia, with light NE winds elsewhere.
Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air present across
northern half of the region from the Lesser Antilles west to the
Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate convection is near Barbados.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over the Gulf of
Honduras.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region Sat through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings, and
the two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 32N76W to St Augustine Florida near
30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 72W-
81W.
Further E, an upper level trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 27N-32N between 59W-63W. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 30N39W to 23N39W producing a wind
shift.
A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N22W.

A cold front off the coast of northeast Florida will reach from
Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Sat morning, then slow down and
begin to stall over the Florida Straits and central Bahamas on
Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front to the north
and east of the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. Looking
ahead, a stronger front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Tue night.

$$
Formosa
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