[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale warning...

A cold front extends from 25N81W to 24N93W to 19N92W. Gale force
northerly winds over the western Bay of Campeche will prevail
through the next 24 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1010 mb surface
low near 29N72W to 26N80W. Winds behind the front are expected to
continue reaching gale force through the next 24 hours north of
26N and west of 72W. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir for the next 12 hours, and in the far N of
marine zone Tarfaya for the next 06 hours. Rough to very rough
seas are expected in these areas. Please refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 47W from 12N southward, is moving
W at 10-15 kt. Abundant cloudiness is observed in the vicinity of
the wave with scattered showers mainly east of the axis.

A tropical wave has entered the east Caribbean with axis along
62W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW satellite
imagery depicts abundant moisture in the vicinity of the wave.
Scattered showers are developing along and within 75 nm east of
the wave axis affecting the Leeward Islands at this time.

A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with axis along 81W from
20N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted south of 10N between 77W-82W.
THis activity is enhanced by the Pacific monsoon trough in the
area. No significant convection is noted north of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
07N13W to 06N33W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N-12N between 23W-35W. A surface trough is analyzed
from 10N39W to 06N40W with scattered showers.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A cold front extends from 25N81W to 24N93W to 19N92W. This front
will stall over the far southeastern Gulf Sun and Mon. Gale force
northerly winds over the western Bay of Campeche will persist
today, before decreasing to strong tonight into Sun. Surface
ridging is building in the wake of the front. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across most of the
basin.

The next cold front will reach the Texas coast by Mon
night, then move through the Gulf through Tuesday. Gale force
northerly winds and large seas will follow for the far western
Gulf Tue and Wed in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds over the
central Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where and light
to moderate NE winds were are noted. Water vapor imagery shows
and upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting
mid- level subsidence and a dry weather regime over most of the
basin. To the SW, the Pacific monsoon trough is along NW Colombia
into Panama and into the Pacific waters. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is been enhanced by the monsoon trough
mainly S of 11N between 77W-83W. A pre-frontal trough extends
across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel with scattered
showers.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
tonight as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region Sun through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and
the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1010 mb surface
low near 29N72W to 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the front and near the low. A pre-frontal trough was
introduced to this analysis, extending from 27N74W to 22N86W.
Scattered showers are noted along the trough. A cold front extends
east of the low from 29N72W to beyond 31N64W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb
high centered near 37N27W.

The cold front will stall through late Sun over the central
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Winds behind the front will
diminish tonight and Sun to strong. The next cold front will move
off the southeast U.S. coast Tue evening.

$$

ERA
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