[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front off the coast of northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the
Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force
north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Sat.
The forecast calls for winds 30-40 kt with seas building up to 14
feet. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the region Sun
and Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing
to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected
in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 33W from 03N-14N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave
axis from 04N-11N between 24N-33W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is W of the wave axis from 02N-10N between 27W-
44W.

A tropical wave with axis along 54W from 04N-15N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean with axis along 74W and
S of 19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with axis along 83W S of
17N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 08N-17N between 81W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N32W,
then resumes west of a wave near 06N35W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 44W-
50W and from 06N-12N between 57W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from St Augustine Florida near 30N81W to
27N90W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N96W to N of Tampico Mexico
near 22N97W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A
surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to 19N96W.
Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough from 19N-21N
between 91W-94W. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong north winds
behind the front.

A cold front currently over the northern Gulf will continue A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to
24N70W. Scattered moderate convection is 24N-31N between 59W-65W.
This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough
crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends
from 29N37W to 22N36W. Scattered showers are near the trough that
is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a paired high pressure located in the
vicinity of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern
periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon
trough is producing a belt of moderate trade winds, particularly
between 07N-22N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of
these winds.moving south, bringing strong winds and building
seas in its wake. By this afternoon, the front will extend from
near Fort Myers Florida to Veracruz Mexico. Near gale force N
winds are expected off the coast of Mexico this afternoon through
Sat night. Mon night, a stronger cold front will move off the
Texas coast. Gale force winds are expected over the far western
Gulf Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds across the
east-central Caribbean and fresh to strong in the central Caribbean
north of Colombia, with light NE winds elsewhere. Water vapor
imagery shows abundant dry air present across northern half of
the region from the Lesser Antilles west to the Yucatan Channel.
Isolated moderate convection is near Barbados. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere over the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas
will diminish across the region Sat through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings, and
the two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 32N76W to St Augustine Florida near
30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 72W-81W.
Further E, an upper level trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 27N-32N between 59W-63W. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 30N39W to 23N39W producing a wind shift.
A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N22W.

A cold front off the coast of northeast Florida will reach from
Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Sat morning, then slow down and
begin to stall over the Florida Straits and central Bahamas on
Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front to the north
and east of the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. Looking
ahead, a stronger front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Tue night.

$$
Formosa
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