[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early
Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early
Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds
will reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas
northeastward Fri night and Sat. The forecast calls for winds 25-
35 kt with seas building up to 13 feet. Winds and seas will begin
to diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing
to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected
in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 30W from 02N-14N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N-10N between 27W-31W mainly west of the wave axis.

A tropical wave with axis along 51W from 03N-15N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms extend about 180 to 200
nm from the wave axis. Scatterometer data from earlier today shows
very well the wave axis with fresh to strong winds east of the
wave, specifically from 09N-13N between 48W-52W. This wave is
well defined in the TPW animation also.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 74W
and S of 19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is noted along the wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis along 82W S
of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
near the southern end of the wave axis and mainly S of 11N W of
80W to the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N27W,
then resumes west of the wave near 05N34W to 04N49W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04N-10N
between 23W-27W and from 02N-08N between 35W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front enters the northern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of
the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to the central Gulf to near
Tampico 24N97W. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity
of the boundary across the Gulf. To the southwest, a surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 23N96W to 19N94W.
A few showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the trough and
near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 19N-20N between
91W-92W. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong north winds behind
the front from 27N-29N between 91W-97W.

A cold front currently over the northern Gulf will continue
moving south, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake.
By this afternoon, the front will extend from near Fort Myers
Florida to Veracruz Mexico. Near gale force N winds are expected
off the coast of Mexico this afternoon through Sat night. Mon
night, a stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast. ale
force winds are expected W of 94W Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds across the
east-central Caribbean and fresh to strong in the central Caribbean
north of Colombia, with light NE winds elsewhere. Water vapor
imagery shows abundant dry air present across northern half of
the region from the Lesser Antilles west to the Yucatan Channel,
therefore, limited convection is noted in the Windward Passage
and near the Cayman Island. South of 14N, some scattered showers
and tstorms are seen in the SW Caribbean Sea near the Pacific
monsoon trough and the tropical waves. Scattered showers are also
noted in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas
will diminish across the region Sat through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to
24N70W. Scattered moderate convection is 24N-31N between 59W-65W.
This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough
crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends
from 29N37W to 22N36W. Scattered showers are near the trough that
is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a paired high pressure located in the
vicinity of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern
periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon
trough is producing a belt of moderate trade winds, particularly
between 07N-22N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of
these winds.

A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early
this morning, reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Sat
morning, then slow down and begin to stall over the Florida
Straits and Central Bahamas on Sun. Winds will reach gale force
north of the front to the north and east of the Bahamas tonight
and Saturday. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat
night through Sun evening.

$$
MMTorres
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