[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020510
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 11N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related
precipitation is near the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is related just to the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. The wave is moving through the
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the
22N60W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate between 60W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 20N southward,
S of 19N, moving W 15 knots. The wave is moving through the
western parts of Jamaica. Precipitation: Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the areas that are to the NW of the line that
runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. An upper-level
trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, between the Bahamas and
the Florida Keys, across Cuba, to Honduras. The tropical wave is
moving toward the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that is
related to the trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of
the line that runs from Haiti to east central coastal Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, TO
06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 06N37W, 05N46W, and to
the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong from 75 nm to 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 37W
and 45W. scattered moderate to strong within 180 nm S of the
monsoon trough between 20W and 24W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere within 540 nm S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
from 38W eastward, and within 360 nm N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N73W to
31N75W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from
31N75W to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central
Gulf of Mexico, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong SE of
the line that passes through 27N82W 24N92W 19N95W.

A surface ridge has built into the area that is behind the cold
front/stationary front. The ridge passes through Louisiana, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current frontal boundary is forecast to remain near its
current position through Sunday. The western part of the front
will move N, slowly, toward the W central Gulf of Mexico on
Monday and Tuesday. Strong high pressure behind the front will
support fresh to strong N to NE winds across much of the basin
during this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are to the
NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE
Nicaragua. An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic
Ocean, between the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, across Cuba, to
Honduras. The 78W tropical wave is moving toward the area of
upper level cyclonic wind flow that is related to the trough.
Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of the line that runs from
Haiti to east central coastal Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 76W in Colombia and
beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Numerous strong from
10N southward, between Colombia and Panama, including in the
Gulf of Uraba. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 12N southward
from 76W westward.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia, with mainly moderate winds across the remainder of the
basin. Large long period NE swell, affecting the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean passages, will subside slowly
through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N73W to 31N75W. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 31N75W to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate NW of the line that passes through 32N70W to
26N80W at the coast of Florida.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N60W, about
400 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N
northward between 43W and 70W. A surface trough is along 28N54W
25N56W 21N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 19N to 25N between 52W and 55W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 18N to 30N between 39W and 63W.

The current frontal boundary will stall tonight and Saturday.
Reinforcing high pressure will push the front southward to near
the NW Bahama on Saturday night and Sunday. Large NE swell,
affecting the area NE of the Bahamas, will subside gradually
during the upcoming weekend.

$$
mt
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