[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Southwestern Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Gales in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz and
Coatzacoalcos are expected to end on 02/0000 UTC. Maximum waves
heights are 16 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast product,
listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W/37W south of 11N,
moving W around 15 kt. The wave is well-marked in the 850-700 mb
LPW product and in potential vorticity fields. Isolated moderate
convection is from 06N-10N between 35W-43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W S of 18N, moving W
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N
between 46W-50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W/67W S of 19N,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N-15N between 61W-64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W S of 19N, moving W
around 15 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to
06N35W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N38W to he
coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Ft. Myers Florida to 22N90W to
the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the front. A 1029 mb surface high is over N
Mississippi. Cool, dry air is spreading over the Gulf of Mexico
behind the front.

The Gulf of Mexico front is forecast to remain near its current
position through Sun. The western portion of the front will slowly
lift N toward the W central Gulf Mon and Tue. Minimal gale force
winds currently west of the front over the SW Gulf will diminish
to 25-30 kt by this evening. Strong high pressure behind the front
will support fresh to strong N to NE winds across the basin this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean and Cuba. Isolated
moderate convection is over Central America S of 30N. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is inland over N Colombia due to the
eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia with mainly moderate winds across the remainder of the
basin. Large long period NE swell affecting the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean passages will slowly subside
through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N76W to Stuart Florida. A weak
pre-frontal trough is over the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are within 30 nm of the front from 27N-29N
between 78W-80W. Isolated to scattered showers are along the pre-
frontal trough. Meanwhile, a large upper-level low is spreading
upper-level cyclonic flow from 18N-31N between 43W-60W. A surface
trough is from 27N53W to 21N58W. A surface ridge axis extends
from a 1027 mb high near 34N29W to Bermuda.

The front off the Florida coast will stall tonight and Sat.
Reinforcing high pressure will push the front southward to near
the NW Bahama Sat night and Sun. Large NE swell affecting the area
NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside during the upcoming
weekend.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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