[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) is affecting the northern portion
of Central America as well as Southern Mexico and the adjacent
eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will continue to bring
abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall to portions of
Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico, and possibly also to
western portions El Salvador and Honduras, through the weekend.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous
terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 14N
southward. Scattered showers are seen from 02N-08N between 32W-
42W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough as seen in the
computer models.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N18W and 05N23W. The ITCZ begins
near 05N23W to 03N36W and continues west of a tropical wave from
02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is seen from 01N-09N between 05W-15W.
Scattered showers are near and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
42W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid to upper level ridging covers the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge continues to bring fair weather over most of the Gulf,
except for the southwest Gulf. The East Pacific monsoon trough is
located over northern Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in
southern Mexico. A 1009 mb surface low is located over western
Belize near 16N89W. A surface trough extends from the low into the
Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen in the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 24N west of 92W
including along the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz.
Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms are seen along the coast
between the Florida Big Bend and Mobile Alabama, enhanced by
upper-level diffluence on the north side of the upper ridge.

Active weather associated with a broad area of low pressure that
is centered over Guatemala and Belize is expected to shift into
the SW Gulf this weekend. Low pressure may develop along a trough
axis over the SW Gulf this weekend possibly lingering into early
next week. Expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
over the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico, especially south
of 23N and west of 90W, beginning late tonight or early Saturday.
Fresh E to SE winds are expected in the south-central Gulf and SW
Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds will persist
across the northern Gulf through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-upper level ridging over the SE Gulf of Mexico, South
Florida, Cuba and the NW Caribbean is creating mostly fair weather
for the area that includes Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
The East Pacific monsoon trough extends over Central America from
Panama to a 1009 mb surface low over southern Belize near 16N89W
westward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Upper-level divergence and
diffluence are noted near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
As a result of these surface and upper-level features, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted over eastern Honduras, Belize,
the Caribbean Sea southwest of a line from 15N81W to 20N87W, and
in the far SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 75W. Isolated to
scattered showers are elsewhere south of 16N west of 72W.

In the eastern Caribbean, mid-upper level troughing prevails,
stemming from upper-level troughing over the Atlantic to the north
of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are noted north of 14N between 60W-72W, including
over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and
portions of Hispaniola.

A ridge north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh
trades across the Caribbean through the weekend. A broad area of
low pressure centered over Belize will enhance showers and
thunderstorms in the western Caribbean north of Honduras, and east
of Belize and the Yucatan, through tonight or early Saturday
before the low begins to draw the enhanced moisture west of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep-layered ridging persists east of Florida, leading to mostly
fair weather for the Florida Straits, NW and Central Bahamas, and
the Atlantic waters north of 25N west of 68W. Mid to upper-level
troughing extends from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico northeastward to
30N55W. This troughing generally covers the area from 18N-30N
between 52W-70W. A surface trough extends from 22N68W to 27N61W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within 90 nm of the surface
trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen
in a box enclosed by the points 14N61W to 19N65W to 26N55W to
19N50W to 14N61W. A 1024 mb surface high is near 32N41W. A
stationary front extends from 31N36W to 26N45W. Isolated showers
are possible near the front.

High pressure ridging along 28N will shift slightly east-southeast
through the weekend as a weak cold front moves to just offshore
the southeastern U.S. and becomes stationary into early next week.
A new area of high pressure will build southward from the Mid-
Atlantic region over the NW waters Mon night through Tue night.
Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected over the forecast
area. The mid to upper-level trough, mentioned in the previous
paragraph, will support unsettled weather over the far SE part of
the area through this evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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