[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will
continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy
rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few
days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through
Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the
Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the
Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca. An area of
low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough will
be absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are
possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash
flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central
America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for
Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local
meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from
12N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are from 01N to 08N between 34W and 41W. The wave is collocated
with a 700 mb trough as seen in the computer models. The wave is
within the western edge of a moisture plume, according to total
precipitable water imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea near 11N15W to 07N18W and 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
04N24W to 03N34W, to 03N29W and 03N35W. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 07W and 13W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 09N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The East Pacific Ocean monsoon trough has moved northward. It
spans southern Mexico/the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Guatemala, and
Honduras. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward between the western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Mexico along 97W/98W.

Large-scale deep layer anticyclonic wind flow is bringing fair
weather to most of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Active weather, that is associated with a broad area of low
pressure in Central America, is expected to shift into the SW
Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. It is likely that a trough
will develop there, and a low pressure area may form along the
trough. Moderate easterly winds will persist to the south of a
ridge that is in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 26N66W
cyclonic circulation center, toward the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, cover the
Caribbean Sea from 81W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Belize. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that extend from the
Yucatan Peninsula to Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers currently are in NE Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras, at the border areas. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the
areas from western Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge that is to the north of the region will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds in the Caribbean Sea through the
weekend. A broad area of low pressure, that is persisting in
Central America and the Gulf of Honduras, will enhance
rainshowers/thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea and in
the Yucatan Channel during the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from one cyclonic circulation
center that is near 26N39W, to a second cyclonic circulation
center that is near 29N55W, to a third cyclonic circulation
center that is near 26N66W, and then southwestward beyond the
Windward Passage. A stationary front passes through 32N35W, to
28N40W, 27N43W, and 24N45W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 30W and 55W. A surface trough is along 29N62W
25N63W 20N67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that
is from 20N northward between 55W and 74W.

A 28N/29N ridge will remain in place during the next several
days. Expect fairly tranquil conditions in the forecast waters.
A middle level trough will support unsettled weather in the far
SE part of the area from through this evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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