[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
726 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and the
adjacent eastern Pacific and SW Caribbean. This circulation will
continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall
across portions of Central America during the next few days. Flash
flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous
terrain. Through Wednesday, expect the heaviest rains over
portions of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua. Heavy rain is also
likely at times in portions of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and
southern Honduras. Please refer to your local meteorological
service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 02N-14N,
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 03N-06N
along and within 240 nm behind the wave axis. The CIMSS TPW and
LPW products show enhanced low-mid level moisture with the wave.

A tropical wave is along 57W from 15N southward, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
near the wave axis from 07N-10N. The wave has become less distinct
in its moisture and wind fields during the past 24 hours.
However, enhanced showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Tuesday for the Windward Islands as the wave passes through.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits west Africa near 11N15W to 06N20W. The
ITCZ begins near 06N20W to 04N24W, then continues west of a
tropical wave from 04N28W to the coast of NE Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is present near and within 120 nm S
of the monsoon trough between 15W-19W, and from 00N-05N between
01W-07W. Scattered showers are also from 01N-05N between 32W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong deep-layered ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico, with very
dry low to mid level air noted over the eastern Gulf on the
GOES-16 water vapor channels. As a result, mostly fair weather
prevails across the basin. A 1019 mb surface high is near 29N85W.
Gentle winds are in the NE Gulf with moderate anticyclonic winds
elsewhere. The high pressure will continue to maintain moderate to
fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate
breezes elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough forming over the
Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds each
night as it moves into the southwestern Gulf. Smoke from fires in
southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the southwestern
Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-upper level troughing is over the NW Caribbean. A surface
trough is analyzed in the W Caribbean from 13N82W to 18N84W. The
monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean along 10N. CIMSS analyses
indicate enhanced upper-level divergence and low-level convergence
over the W Caribbean. The CIMSS TPW product shows enhanced
moisture in the W Caribbean. As a result of the above factors,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present between
74W-83W in the Caribbean Sea. Within that area, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen from 12N-14N between 77W-
80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen over land over
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Numerous moderate with
scattered strong convection is occurring over central and western
Panama as well as southern and central Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate convection is also over southern Guatemala, El Salvador
and SW Honduras. See section above for more information on the
excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across much of the basin through the week. Broad low
pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific
waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the
western Caribbean through late week. A tropical wave along 57W
will move across the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday, then move
across the central Caribbean Tuesday night through Wednesday
while losing its identity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about the tropical
waves currently moving across the basin.

A 1019 mb high is near 29N72W. Strong low-mid level ridging covers
the waters east of Florida, leading to mostly fair weather in the
area. Expect the ridge to persist along roughly 28N through
Thursday, then shift slightly northward on Friday. A cold front
currently enters the central Atlantic near 32N42W and extends
southwestward to near 26N47W to 24N55W, then continues as a
dissipating stationary front to 22N78W. Isolated showers are near
the fronts. Ridging covers the remainder of the area to the east
of the front.

A strong northerly swell associated with a low pressure system
over the north central Atlantic is affecting the NE Caribbean
Islands. Seas of 6-8 ft east of 70W will persist through this
evening, then diminish slowly late tonight and Tuesday. This
swell will produce large breaking waves along the exposed Atlantic
coasts of the NE Caribbean Islands through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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