[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and the
adjacent eastern Pacific and SW Caribbean today. This circulation will
continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall
across portions of Central America during the next few days.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in
areas of mountainous terrains. Strong convection has shifted over
water overnight and this morning, and was occurring across the SW
Caribbean offshore of Costa Rica and extreme southeast Nicaragua.
As daytime heating ensues, look for this activity to begin to
initiate over land. Please refer to your local meteorological
service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic, and is
analyzed along 25W-26W from 13N-03N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are seen near the
wave axis generally south of 08N.

A tropical wave continues moving west across the tropical Atlantic,
with axis along 56W-57W and from 15N-00N. The wave is moving at
around 15 kt. A few clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted near the wave axis, mainly south of 10N.
More active convection is occurring in convergence ahead of the
wave across portions of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Western Africa and passes through the
coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N22W. The
ITCZ extends from near 04N23W to 01.5N40W to the coast of NE
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is present from
the monsoon trough southward to 03N between the Africa coast and
24W. Additionally, scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen from 00N to the African coast from 10W eastward
across the Gulf of Guinea. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 28W to the coast of
Brazil south of 05N.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the Gulf at this time. A surface
ridge continues across the basin, extending from weak 1020 mb
highs across the SW N Atlc along 29N westward across the Florida
peninsula to a 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf near
28.5N84.5W. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh ENE wind flow
through the Straits of Florida with wind then turning sharply
anticyclonically across the rest of the basin E of 90W, becoming
SW across the Big Bend region. Offshore observations show light SE
winds across the SW Gulf becoming moderate southerly winds across
all of the NW Gulf. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires is not
obvious in satellite imagery across the Gulf at this time, and
morning observations along the Mexican coast were only reporting
slight to moderate haze. A few streets of shallow cumulus clouds
with possible light precipitation are embedded in the southerly
flow across NW portions of the Gulf and along the upper coast of
Mexico. Otherwise skies are fair to clear across the basin.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will
maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf
and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through Thu. A trough
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon will move
westward off the peninsula and across the southwestern Gulf late
at night through the mornings, and will support locally fresh to
strong winds during the evenings. Smoke from ongoing fires in
southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the
southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early
part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough extends from the central Bahamas to
the Yucatan Peninsula, and is promoting unstable atmospheric
conditions across much of the Caribbean west of 78W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection continues across the southwest
Caribbean offshore of the Central American coasts to about 17N.
Late morning scatterometer data shows a weak trough developing
from the coastal waters just offshore of the Nicaragua-Honduras
border to just southwest of Andres Island. Gusty winds in squalls
are evident in visible satellite imagery across this area between
15N and 17N. See the above section for more information on the
excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

High pressure across the SW N Atlc is building modestly SW across
the Bahamas and much of Cuba today and yielding fresh ENE winds
in the lee of Cuba. Narrow bands of scattered moderate convection
continues south of Cuba and extends to the Yucatan Channel where
they are weakening. Meanwhile, fair weather prevails across most
of the rest of the Caribbean east of 75W where moderate E to ESE
tradewinds prevail, while fresh winds are seen offshore of
Colombia. A cluster of moisture can be seen moving WNW across
Puerto Rico at this time, producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms that have begun to increase in intensity of recent.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much
of the western Caribbean through at least the early part of the
week. The tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands today will
move across the rest of the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
tonight, then across the southeastern Caribbean Tue, then across
the central Caribbean Tue night through Wed night while weakening.
Strong N swell generated across the NW Atlc will reach the NE
Caribbean Passages late this afternoon and evening and build
overnight through Tue as it moves in narrow rays through eastern
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for information about the tropical
waves currently moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N44W and extends
southwestward to near 24N55W where it become near stationary and
meanders W-SW to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm southeast of the front to the
east of 50W, while scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
seen elsewhere along the stationary front. A weak surface ridge
prevails NW of the front along 29N. A broad surface ridge extends
from NE of the Azores southwestward into the eastern Atlc to the
east of this cold front, to about 25N42W. Morning scatterometer
data showed mainly moderate NE to ENE tradewinds across the
tropical Atlc, except fresh trades with and behind the tropical
wave approaching the Windwards.

The cold front will move slowly eastward for the next 24-30 hours
before supporting energy lifts N and out of the discussion area,
leaving the front to quickly stall and weaken to a trough. along
40W. The meandering stationary portion of the front will linger
for another 12-18 hours before dissipating. The ridge north of the
front along 29N will persist through Tu then shift slightly
northward Wed through Fri night.

As mentioned above, strong northerly swell associated with a low
pressure system over the north central Atlc will move into the
Atlc waters today and reach the NE Caribbean Islands late this
afternoon and evening. Seas will build to 6-8 ft east of 70W today
and then diminish slowly tonight and Tue. This swell will produce
large breaking waves along the exposed Atlantic coasts of the NE
Caribbean Islands tonight and Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stripling
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