[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the eastern Atlantic along 31W
from 11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. TPW imagery nicely
indicates the presence of the wave. The wave is enhancing
scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 02N-06N between
22W-40W, with isolated strong convection in this area between
22W-29W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
05N20W. The ITCZ is from 05N20W to 04N28W, then continues west of
a tropical wave from 03N32W to 02N44W to 00N50W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
moderate convection prevails from 01N-06N between 05W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin with fair
weather, with a 1018 mb high near 29N85W. Recent scatterometer
data shows strong SE winds covering the western Gulf and the
south-central Gulf. Winds are lighter in the NE Gulf. A surface
trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche accompanied by an
isolated shower or two.

High pressure across the W Atlantic extending SW to the eastern
Gulf will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across the western
Gulf through Fri. High pressure will become more E to W aligned
along about 30N over the weekend to produce moderate to fresh E to
SE wind flow across most of Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern
Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica to Panama
into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection
prevails over southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador and western
Nicaragua, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from
Honduras through Costa Rica and the western Caribbean Sea from
11N-17N, west of 77W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is also over northern Colombia and extreme western
Venezuela, mainly south of 10.5N. Cloudiness along with scattered
showers and isolated tstorms covers portions of the northern
Caribbean from Hispaniola to the south coast of Cuba. The latest
ASCAT pass shows strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras.

Heavy rain is expected to continue across southern Honduras, El
Salvador, Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica through Friday,
enhanced by an area of low pressure near the west coast of
Nicaragua, mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the
eastern North Pacific. These rains could cause flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. In addition, active
weather is likely to continue across the SW Caribbean through the
weekend. High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh
to strong tradewinds across most of the south central Caribbean
and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night before winds
diminish modestly through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A southward moving cold front enters the discussion area near
32N59W and extends W to 28N73W to 31N79W. A surface trough is from
28N65W to 21N74W. An upper-level low is near 26N68W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are from 21N-26N between 62W-71W. The
remainder of the basin is covered by a high pressure ridge,
anchored by 1020 and 1022 mb highs near 26N49W and 31N23W,
respectively.

The cold front will continue sinking south across the northern
waters through Friday before stalling E to W along 25N late Fri
then gradually dissipating. High pressure N of the front will sink
S to along 30N by Fri night and persist through the weekend. A
broad inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Fri. NE
winds near 30 kt will continue through Friday in the far E
Atlantic near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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