[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the eastern Atlantic along 29W
from 11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted within 75 nm on either side of the trough axis mainly
south of 05N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ starts
west of a tropical wave near 03N32W to 01S46W. Scattered showers
prevail within 50 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin with fair weather.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the
eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds are noted
over the western half.

High pressure will become more E to W aligned along 30N during
the weekend, in order to produce moderate to fresh E to SE wind
flow across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in
southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western and SW
parts of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern sections of Costa
Rica, to the coastal sections of Panama into northern Colombia
along 10N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail
over Central America, while a cluster of showers is noted south of
15N and west of 76W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the whole basin.

High pressure across the west Atlantic will support fresh to
strong pulsing trades across the south central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras through Thu night, before diminishing modestly
through the weekend. Developing low pressure across the eastern
Pacific and Central America may produce very active weather across
the SW Caribbean Fri through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic along 30N and west
of 68W. A surface trough extends from 30N65W to 21N72W.
Scattered showers are noted along the trough. To the east, a 1021
mb surface high is centered near 26N48W. A second 1022 mb high
pressure center is near 31N26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic from 14N northward from 60W eastward.

The cold front will continue sinking south across the northern
waters this evening through Fri before stalling along 25N by late
Fri, then gradually dissipating. High pressure N of the front
will sink south to along 30N by Fri night and persist through the
weekend. A broad inverted trough will persist north of Hispaniola
through Fri.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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