[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

N to NE Gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine
zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone
Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir
on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast
from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N36W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along and south of the monsoon trough east of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is analyzed in the northeast Gulf near 28N85W and
is ridging across most of the basin. Isolated showers are seen
across the eastern Gulf off the southwest Florida coast.
Otherwise, conditions are benign. A surface trough off the
Yucatan Peninsula is seen near 22N89W to 19N94W. Winds continue to
be light to gentle and out of the east in the eastern Gulf. In
the western portion of the basin, winds are moderate to fresh out
of the southeast. Smoke continues to be noted over the western
Gulf west of 91W and south of 23N.

Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected across the
western Gulf tonight through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong
easterly winds near the west coast of Yucatan Peninsula are
possible at night due to local effects. Smoke and haze from fires
across southern Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western
Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection continues across the southwestern portion of the basin
off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.
The convection impacting the Windward Passage has tapered off.
Showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and eastern portion
of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the
southern Caribbean with the strongest winds off the Venezuelan
coast. For the rest of the basin, trades are generally light to
gentle.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the Tropical North
Atlantic the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is observed near 26N68W with a trough extending
along the low from 28N66W to 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection
is near and to the west of the low, from 29N-25N between 65W-
75W. Another surface low is seen between the Bahamas and South
Florida, along 79W from 26N-24N. Isolated showers are seen near
this trough and in the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, what was
once a dying stationary front in the central Atlantic is now a
surface trough analyzed from 31N50W to 28N55W. A 1021 mb high
pressure is analyzed near 28N48W and a 1023 mb high near 34N25W. A
surface trough is between these two high pressures analyzed near
28N39W to 21N41W.

The low pressure system associated with a broad, disorganized
area of disturbed weather SW of Bermuda may possibly develop into
a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. Moderate winds
are expected across most of the rest of the region the next few
days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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