[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

N to NE Gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine
zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone
Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir
on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast
from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
along and south of the monsoon trough east of 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The squall line that was seen moving across the north-central
Gulf off the Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coast has now
dissipated. Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across the basin.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue off the southwest
coast of Florida. In the eastern Gulf, light to gentle easterly
winds are seen. Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds are
seen in the western Gulf. Smoke continues to be noted over the
western Gulf west of 91W and south of 23N.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf
and lower pressures in NE Mexico will support strong SE to S winds
and building seas over the western Gulf Monday night through
Thursday night. Expect also fresh to strong easterly winds near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into early
mornings hours due to local effects. Smoke and haze from fires in
Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay
of Campeche the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection is currently observed just off the coast of Haiti in
the Windward Passage. Convection also continues across the
southwest Gulf moving off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Colombia. Showers are seen moving across the Lesser
Antilles in addition to the eastern half of the Greater Antilles.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the southern Caribbean with
the strongest winds off the Venezuelan coast. For the rest of the
basin, trades are generally light to gentle.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday
night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the Tropical N
Atlantic the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dying stationary front enters the waters near 31N50W and
extends westward to near 28N63W. A surface trough continues from
28N63W to the southeastern Bahamas near 21N73W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen adjacent to the trough from 31N-24N between
62W-70W. In the western Bahamas, another trough is analyzed near
25N79W to 23N79W. Isolated convection is seen near this trough
moving from the Bahamas to south Florida and into the Straits of
Florida. A 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N47W and a
1025 mb high near 33N28W. A surface trough is between these two
high pressures analyzed near 30N38W to 28N40W.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front. Otherwise, moderate winds are generally expected
across most of the region the next few days. Please see the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at
http://hurricanes.gov.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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