[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N16W to 04N21W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near
00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails
south of the monsoon from 06W-20W, while scattered showers are
noted along the ITCZ between 27W-30W and west of 41W to the
coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered over southern Georgia. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow prevails across the whole area, with seas generally under 5
ft. A relatively dry airmass is noted across most of the region.
Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility
across the western Gulf west of 90W and north to the Texas coast.
Two troughs are noted in the basin, one surface trough extends
from the FL Panhandle near 30N83W to 27N84W, second trough is in
the Bay of Campeche near 22N91W to 18N92W. Both troughs are not
producing any significant convection in the vicinity.

The surface ridge will move east toward Bermuda through the
weekend. SE winds will strengthen to strong breeze across the
western Gulf Mon night through Wed night ahead of an intense low
pressure system moving through the southern great plains of the
U.S. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities
over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next
several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Westerly flow aloft is transporting mid to upper level moisture
from Central America through Cuba, Windward Passage and Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are noted spread across the northwest Caribbean
waters mainly north of 15N and west of 80W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present in the southern Caribbean
north of Panama and Costa Rica. Abundant moisture in the region
continues to enhance convective acitivity and persist over the
area near Panama and Costa Rica. Subsidence and relatively dry
weather covers the remainder of the basin. The Saharan Air Layer
product from CIMSS shows that this is partially due to some
African dust that has reached this area.

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon.
Smoke and haze from fires in Central America will reduce
visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 28N77W to
29N79W near the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted
within 260 nm east of the trough. A cold front enters the
discussion area near 31N52W to 25N59W, then continues as a
stationary front to the central Bahamas near 23N73W. Scattered
showers are noted within 90 nm on either side of the fronts. East
of the front, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 36N33W. An upper-level low that has persisted for
the last few days has a surface reflection, analyzed as a 1013 mb
surface low near 24N18W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer
data northeast of this low between the Canary and the Madeira
Islands. Expect near gale northeast winds to pulse off the coast
of Morocco now through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir
and Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according
to the latest forecast from Meteo France.

The fronts will weaken and dissipate by tonight as high pressure
builds across the northern waters. Moderate trade winds are
expected across most of the region as a surface ridge remains in
place near 30N through Mon. An area of low pressure is then
expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development
of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible
during the early and middle part of next week, while it moves
northward or northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical
Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more
details. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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