[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Sat May 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 07N20W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W, while
scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 23W-33W and
west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb
high centered over the Florida Panhandle. A gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole area, with seas
generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass is noted across
most of the region.

The surface ridge will move east toward Bermuda through the
weekend. Southeast winds will strengthen across the western Gulf
Mon night and Tue ahead of an intense low pressure system moving
through the southern great plains of the U.S. Smoke and haze from
fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and
the Bay of Campeche during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Westerly flow aloft is transporting mid to upper level moisture
from Central America through Cuba, Windward Passage and
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest
Caribbean waters mainly north of 15N and west of 75W. Moisture is
forecast to persist across Cuba, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters
this weekend enhancing the likelihood of some convective activity,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Subsidence
and relatively dry weather cover the remainder of the basin. The
Saharan Air Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially
due to some African dust that has reached this area.

Fresh winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean, while
moderate winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean and
gentle winds over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds
will continue over the Gulf of Honduras Sat through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N77W to
24N78W. Scattered showers are noted within 230 nm east of the
trough. A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N53W to
25N60W, then continues as a stationary front to the central
Bahamas near 24N74W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on
either side of the fronts. East of the front, surface ridging
prevails anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 35N36W. An
upper-level low that has persisted for the last few days near
29N21W has a surface reflection, analyzed as a 1012 mb surface low
near 25N21W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data
northeast of this low between the Canary and the Madeira Islands.
Expect near gale northeast winds to pulse off the coast of Morocco
now through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir and
Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according to
the latest forecast from Meteo France.

The fronts will weaken and dissipate by tonight as high pressure
builds across the northern waters. Moderate trade winds are
expected across most of the region as a surface ridge remains in
place near 30N through Mon. An area of low pressure is then
expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development
of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible
during the early and middle part of next week, while it moves
northward or northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical
Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more
details. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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