[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Mon May 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. A trough in between the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ is located from 06N20W to 00N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N21W to 00N32W to 01S47W. Isolated moderate
convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough from
06N-01N between 10W-17W. A surface trough is also seen north of
the ITCZ near 09N33W to 01N33W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near the ITCZ, with the strongest convection located adjacent
to the surface trough and the ITCZ, from 02N-04S between 29W-
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front enters the Gulf of Mexico just south of Tampa Bay,
Florida near 28N83W to near 26N86W. From 26N86W, the front stalls
and stretches across the Gulf to northern Mexico near 26N97W.
Strong convection is seen moving into the northern Yucatan south
of 22N. Scattered showers are also seen south of the frontal
boundary mostly in the southeastern Gulf. Convection occurring in
Texas is also moving into the western Gulf. South of the front,
light to gentle east-southeast winds are seen, with gentle to
moderate northeasterly winds north of the boundary.

The stationary front will meander and weaken tonight, then begin
to drift northward across western portions of the Gulf on Tuesday.
A trough will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula and
drift westward into the SW Gulf each night before dissipating each
morning. This trough will support pulses of fresh to locally
strong winds in the SW Gulf during the evening and overnight
hours. Smoke producing hazy skies from ongoing agricultural fires
in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay
of Campeche.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are seen across the northwestern Caribbean and
the eastern portion of the basin. Isolated thunderstorms are seen
in the Gulf of Honduras. Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the
eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in
the western basin.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south- central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through early Wednesday before
diminishing. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires could
reduce visibilities north of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front in the western Atlantic enters the waters near
31N76W to just south of Daytona Beach, Florida near 29N81W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 80 nm south of the
front. Convection across south Florida has also moved into the
Atlantic from 28N-27N and west of 78W. Convection ongoing across
Cuba has also entered the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, a low in
the central Atlantic is near 27N41W with a trough extending along
the low from 29N34W to 20N60W. No significant weather is
occurring along this trough. A 1024 mb high is observed near
26N54W and a 1022 mb high is near 25N30W which are ridging across
most of the central Atlantic.

High pressure ridge extending westward along 26N across
the forecast waters will retreat slowly eastward through Wednesday.
This will enable the cold front moving off Florida to shift
southeastward across the northeastern waters. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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