[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon May 6 12:33:36 CDT 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 061733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon May 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N17W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from
02N20W to the Equator along 25W, to just to the south of the
Equator along 28W, to the Equator along 34W, to 01S40W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N
southward between 44W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward.

One surface trough is along 17W/18W from 09N southward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 01N to 05N
between 16W and 20W. A second surface trough is along 30W from
09N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from the Equator to 03N between 28W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through NE Florida, into the east central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and to the central Gulf waters.
The front becomes stationary in the central Gulf, and it
continues until the Deep South of Texas. Numerous strong
rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 23N to 25N between
85W and 87W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 28N
southward from 90W eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. Numerous
strong rainshowers also are in parts of the Deep South of Texas
from 26.5N to 28.5N between the coast and 99W.

The current cold front will weaken and drift southward today.
High pressure will build in its wake. A trough will develop each
night in the Yucatan Peninsula, and then drift westward into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico each night, before dissipating
each morning. This trough will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico during the evening
and overnight hours. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural
fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western
and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough is spanning
southern Mexico between the Yucatan Peninsula and 97W. Numerous
strong rainshowers were in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
from 18N southward from 86W westward, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, at 06/1240 UTC. The cloud top temperatures have been
warming since then, and the precipitation has been weakening.
Expect broken to overcast convective debris clouds and possibly
lingering rainshowers from 15N northward from 80W westward.

An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across
northern Colombia, and into Nicaragua and central Honduras.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 06/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.33 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.07 in Guadeloupe, 0.06 in St. Thomas in
the Virgin Islands, and 0.04 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through early
Wednesday, before diminishing. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires may be reducing the visibilities north of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N79W to NE Florida near 30N81W.
This is the cold front that is passing through the Gulf of
Mexico also. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 29N to 31N between 73W and 78W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 27N northward from 70W
westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
13N between Africa and 60W. A cold front passes through 32N20W
to 31N21W. A dissipating cold front continues from 31N21W to
28N26W and 27N40W. A surface trough continues from 27N40W to
23N45W, 20N50W, 19N55W, and 20N60W. Rainshowers are possible in
broken multilayered clouds, that are within 60 nm to 90 nm on
either side of the frontal boundary and surface trough.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 27N55W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N
northward between 50W and the Bahamas, away from the 27N40W to
20N60W surface trough.

A surface ridge across the forecast waters will retreat eastward
today. A cold front, that currently is in the NW waters, will be
able to shift eastward across the northern waters.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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