[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040910
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
510 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W
to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 02N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S
of the monsoon trough from 01N-08N between 09W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is still inland over S Texas. A squall line is over
the NW Gulf of Mexico from 31N95W to 27N95W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over the NW Gulf N of
27N and W of 91W. Further E, scattered showers are over the
Straits of Florida and W Cuba. The Gulf of Mexico E of the squall
line has 5-15 kt SW return flow with strongest winds over the W
Gulf.

The cold front will move into the NW Gulf today. Weak ridging
northeast of the Gulf will produce gentle winds and placid sea
conditions for the next several days. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the
western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is over S Guatemala and W Honduras. Similar
convection is over S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, W Panama, and N
Colombia. In the upper levels, a trough is over the NW Caribbean.
An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly winds
across most of the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras
today. Winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage tonight
through early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and
the pressure gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 32N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 28N and W of 76W. Upper level diffluence is
also enhancing this convection. A 1024 mb high is centered near
29N61W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N32W to
25N42W with scattered showers.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure extending from a high center
southeast of Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds
north of Hispaniola each evening through Sun. A weak cold front
will approach the northern forecast waters on Mon, then push
eastward across the west-central Atlantic Tue through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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