[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N13W to
03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of
the Monsoon trough from 02N-08N between 08W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb low is centered over SE Georgia near 31N81W. A surface
trough extends W from the low to the Florida Panhandle near
31N87W. Scattered moderate convection is over SE Georgia and NE
Florida, to include Jacksonville Florida. Further S, scattered
moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
inland over S Texas. Widely scattered moderate convection is also
over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 22N and W of 92W. 5-15 kt SW flow
is over the Gulf, with strongest winds over the W Gulf.

A weak cold front will move across the NW north-central waters
Sat and become stationary Sat night near the coast. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to
severe, are expected along and near the front. Otherwise, weak
high pressure ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce generally
light to gentle winds over most of the Gulf and relatively low
seas for the next several days. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the
western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through at least the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over S Guatemala and W
Honduras. Similar convection is over Costa Rica, W Panama, and N
Colombia. In the upper levels, a trough is over the NW Caribbean.
An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near gale
force northeast to east winds over the south- central Caribbean as
well as strong east winds over Gulf of Honduras today. Winds will
diminish and decrease in areal coverage Sat through early next
week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure
gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 31N81W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails across the west Atlantic mainly N of 28N and W
of 76W, mostly due to upper level diffluence. A 1024 mb high is
centered near 30N64W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic
from 31N32W to 24N45W with scattered showers. A 1021 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 28N27W.

Over the W Atlantic, the 1013 mb low along the coast of
southeastern Georgia, with a trough extending northeastward along
the southeastern Georgia coast, will lift northward through Sat
while weakening. A 1024 mb high center S of Bermuda will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the
evening through Sun. A weak cold front will approach the northern
forecast waters Mon, then push eastward across the west- central
Atlantic on Tue through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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