[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 04N20W, to 04N24W, to
02N31W, to the Equator along 36W, to 02S43W. Precipitation:
Scattered strong from 03N to 05N between 08W and 11W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 04N from 03W
eastward, from 03N northward between 05W and 08W, and from 03N
to 05N between 18W and 23W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 07N
southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from coastal Georgia, through NE
Florida, to the Florida Gulf of Mexico coast near 29N83W, to
24N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, N of 25N E of 86W.

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the Yucatan Channel.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
coastal plains and coastal waters of Texas. This precipitation
is related to a middle level trough and inland severe weather.

The current trough in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will move
to the northeast of the area later today. A weak ridge to the
northeast of the Gulf will produce generally quiescent winds and
seas for the next several days. It is possible that smoke and
haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce the
visibilities in the western and southwestern parts of the Gulf
of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to
the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough continues to parts of
Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.

An upper level ridge passes through eastern Venezuela, beyond
northern Colombia, into the eastern Pacific Ocean near 07N85W.
Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
rest of the Caribbean Sea, away from the cyclonic wind flow of
the Yucatan Peninsula-to-El Salvador trough. High level clouds
also cover much of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 15N northward from 80W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 03/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.68 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.13 in Trinidad, 0.11 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico, 0.05 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in
Curacao.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda High
north of the area and low pressure in Colombia, is supporting
strong to near gale force NE to E winds in the south-central
Caribbean Sea. It also is supporting strong E winds in the Gulf
of Honduras today. The wind speeds will diminish and decrease in
areal coverage from Saturday through early next week, as the
high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is moving through the central Atlantic
Ocean. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through
32N35W to 29N40W to 27N48W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 27N48W to 28N55W. One surface trough is along
33N29W 28N30W. A second surface trough is comparatively more to
the southeast of the front, along 29N34W 25N40W 21N45W. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N34W to 28N40W to 25N50W. Rainshowers are possible within 30
nm on either side of the line that runs from 29N32W to 25N40W to
20N48W. Rainshowers are possible also, from 20N to 24N50W 24N56W
24N66W 26N70W between 50W and 70W.

The current trough, that is near the border of NE Florida and
Georgia, will move northeastward today. The Bermuda High will
support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola
during the evening through tomorrow Saturday. A weak cold front
will approach the northern forecast waters on Monday. The front
will push eastward into the west-central Atlantic Ocean on
Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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