[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the area
where the monsoon trough and ITCZ meets from 05N-04N between
19W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 low is along the trough in the eastern Gulf near 28N83W.
The trough extends from the western Atlantic near 31N80W to near
26N85W. The strongest convection associated with this feature is
still occurring over the western Atlantic waters, but showers are
seen in the eastern Gulf within 65 nm of the trough. Meanwhile,
in the western Gulf, showers are off the Texas and Louisiana
coast associated with strong convection over the state induced by
the mid-level disturbance slowly moving eastward across Texas and
Louisiana. The strong convection is still well inland and not
expected to move over the Gulf waters. Surface ridging prevails
elsewhere across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data
depicts light to moderate east- southeast winds across the basin,
with fresh winds north of the Yucatan.

Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke and
haze which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the
Bay of Campeche through today.

A trough across the northeastern Gulf will weaken today and move
north of the area. A thermal induced trough off west of Yucatan
will support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds each
evening. Moderate southeasterly winds are expected elsewhere
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are seen across the northwest Caribbean along
with convection continuing off the northern Panama and Costa Rica
coast. Light showers are seen across Puerto Rico and the Greater
Antilles with some heavier showers south of Hispaniola. Low-topped
showers are also seen across the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean with
gentle to moderate trades in the western basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support
strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Saturday. Winds will diminish and
decrease in areal coverage Sunday and Monday as the high
pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The trough associated with the low over the eastern Gulf extends
into the western Atlantic off the northeast Florida coast near
31N80W to near 30N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen near this trough from 31N-29N between 78W-81W.
A cold front enters the waters in the central Atlantic near
31N39W and extends westward to near 28N48W. From 28N48W, the tail-
end of the boundary stalls to near 28N56W. A pre-frontal trough is
seen from near 31N31W to near 22N45W. Showers are within 50 nm of
both of these boundaries. A 1024 mb high is near 30N61W and is
ridging across the central Atlantic with another 1020 mb high near
25N35W.

A trough across northern Florida will drift northward and weaken
today. High pressure near Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evening through
Saturday. A weak cold front will approach northern forecast
waters Monday then push eastward into the west-central Atlantic
on Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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