[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EDT Wed May 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough over the Bahamas continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the
convection is occurring well to the east of the trough axis with
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 24N between 75W and
77W, and also from 22N to 26N between 65W and 72W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 25N to 27N between 72W and 76W. A
recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds from 24N
to 29N to the west of the trough axis as well as NE of the
Bahamas. Seas are also to 8 ft northeast of the Bahamas. The
trough is moving northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula and
will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thu where it will
likely weaken. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula
during the next couple of days.

See the latest special tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO
Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to
04N20W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from
04N20W to 01N28W, then continues south of the equator from 02S31W
to just offshore of the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. No
significant organized convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the trough over the Bahamas that is forecast to move into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Thu into Fri.

Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which
could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche.

Otherwise, high pressure northeast of the area will continue to
support mainly moderate to fresh SE return flow. Seas are mainly 4
to 7 ft across the basin, except higher near the Straits of
Florida. Ships LAJF7 and J8NY reported 11 ft seas in the Straits
of Florida at 12Z this morning. This is substantially above wave
model guidance, but is consistent with 20 to 25 kt winds blowing
against the current of the Gulf Stream. Seas in the area are
boosted some in our forecast to account for these observations.
The high pressure will weaken this weekend allowing for southeast
return flow to diminish slightly over the central and western
Gulf.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across
the peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection persists off the coast of western Panama where some
weak surface convergence is noted by a recent scatterometer pass.
Otherwise, only widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are elsewhere.

The Bermuda High well north of the basin and low pressure over
Colombia will support enhanced northeast to east tradewinds in
the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the
week. Winds will diminish slightly by this weekend as high
pressure weakens and the pressure gradient slackens.

The northeast trades are also enhanced today by the moderate
pressure gradient over the waters east of the Windward Islands but
are expected to weaken by late Thu. No significant long-period
swell is anticipated over the tropical N Atlantic for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the trough over the Bahamas.

Another trough is located off the coast of northern Brazil from
near 11N50W to near 00N50W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible near the trough axis. This trough is
forecast to move inland over northern South America in the next
few days.

A trough is also analyzed in the open Atlantic waters from near
31N38W to near 23N41W with no significant convection noted. A weak
1025 mb surface high is just to the east of the trough near
30N35W. The trough and weak high are both forecast to shift
southeast the next few days as a cold front currently located well
to the north of the discussion waters drops south into the area
by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. That front may
bring a brief increase in winds, along with building seas in
northwest swell into the open Atlantic waters.

Otherwise, high pressure ridging from a 1030 mb high near 33N66W
is seen across the central Atlantic. This high will build
southward and this pattern will generally support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds. The high will weaken and drift eastward
Friday through Sunday, allowing winds to diminish and seas to
subside. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of Hispaniola
through late week, mainly at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
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