[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the Sierra Leone coast near 09N13W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection near the coast
of western Africa along the monsoon trough from 08N-05N between
11W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the
ITCZ from 05N-01N between 24W-30W and from 01N- 06S and east of
31W to the Brazilian coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough is moving eastward across the Gulf and is seen along the
Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to near 25N86W. Ridging continues
across the eastern Gulf from a high pressure in the central
Atlantic. Showers are moving across the western Gulf and are
weakening with some showers just off the southwest Louisiana coast
and the Gulf of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds
are in the eastern basin with moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds in the western Gulf with some areas of strong winds.

A trough currently east of the Florida Peninsula will drift
westward, reaching the eastern Gulf Thursday, gradually weakening
as it continues northwest through the end of the week. Otherwise,
high pressure northeast of the area will support mainly moderate
to fresh SE return flow. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily
development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure
will weaken this weekend allowing for SE return flow to diminish
slightly over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection persists off the coast of Panama with convection also
seen in Guatemala near the southern Belizean border. Scattered
showers are moving across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba
and Jamaica. Showers are also seen moving across the Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern and
northwest Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades in the western
and southern Caribbean. Some of the winds north of Colombia are
strong.

High pressure north of the area and low pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the week, pulsing to near
gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early
morning hours. Winds will diminish slightly by this weekend as
high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient slackens. Mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. N to NE swell
will move into the waters east of the Windward Islands later
today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The surface trough bringing strong convection and heavy rains
continues to linger across the Bahamas near 28N71W to western
Haiti near 19N73W. Most of the strong convection still occurring
is to the east of the trough over the southeastern islands of the
Bahamas from 22N-21N and west of 72W. Scattered moderate
convection and showers are also seen from 26N-22N between 70W-76W.
Another trough is located off the coast of northern Brazil from
near 09N49W to near 01N49W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging from
a 1028 mb high near 34N64W is seen across the central Atlantic.

A surface trough over the southern and central Bahamas will drift
west and gradually weaken through Thursday while high pressure
builds northeast of the area. This pattern will generally support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong winds S of
28N through late today. High pressure will weaken and drift
eastward Friday through Sunday, allowing winds to diminish and
seas to subside. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of
Hispaniola through late week, mainly at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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