[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 05S24W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 03S-11S between 25W-40W. Isolated convection is observed
from 04N-00N between 12W-34W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over southeast Georgia near 31N82W.
>From this high, surface riding extends southwest across the basin.
Showers continue to move off the coast of Texas and into the
western Gulf. Otherwise, gentle to moderate easterly winds are
seen across the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds north of the
Yucatan and between the Yucatan and Cuba. Mid to upper level
ridging continues to inhibit convection.

High pressure will shift east Saturday ahead of a cold front
moving off the Texas coast Saturday night. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front Sunday over the western
Gulf, possibly reaching gale force over the west central Gulf
Sunday night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through
early next week as the front shifts southeast of the area.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends southwest from southwestern Hispaniola
near 18N74W to central Nicaragua near 13N83W. Showers are
occurring within 50 nm of this boundary. Showers are also
spreading across Hispaniola and to the east of Puerto Rico.
Farther south, showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving into
the Caribbean along the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. Gentle
to moderate trades are seen across the southern and northwestern
portions of the Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, light to
gentle trades are observed. Fresh winds are off the northern
Colombian coast. Because of the mid to upper level ridge
dominating the region, subsidence is suppressing convection.

The stationary front will dissipate through today. Elsewhere,
generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean
and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the waters near 31N61W and extends
southwest into a 1014 mb low near 27N70W. From this low, a cold
front extends south to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near the low and frontal boundary from
north of 66W between 57W-70W. Isolated showers are also moving
southwestward between the Bahamas and South Florida. Otherwise, a
1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N36W is ridging across most
of the south Atlantic waters. A 1016 mb low west of the Canary
Islands near 29N20W is aiding in producing showers within 200 nm
of the islands.

The cold front will gradually stall and weaken through today as
the low continues to move northeast of the area, allowing winds
and seas to diminish accordingly. High pressure will build off the
U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through Sunday, then
continue east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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