[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 02N12W. The ITCZ continues from 02N12W to 03S26W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 01N-09S between 26W-40W. Isolated convection is observed
from 04N-00N between 13W-23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over southern Georgia near 32N84W.
>From this high, surface ridging extends across the basin. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds are seen across the basin with fresh
easterly winds between Cuba and the Yucatan in addition to off the
northern coast of the Yucatan. Showers are moving across the
western Gulf off the Texas coast. Otherwise, strong mid to upper
level ridging is inhibiting convection.

High pressure will ridge WSW over the Gulf from the
western Atlantic through Saturday. A cold front will move over
the northwest Gulf on Saturday night and Sunday followed by fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas. Gale conditions could
develop behind the front over the waters near Tampico Sunday
night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends to the southwest from western Hispaniola
near 18N74W to southern Nicaragua near 11N84W. Showers are seen
along the front across the central Caribbean within 30 nm in
addition to showers moving off Nicaragua and Costa Rica and into
the southeastern portion of the basin. Scattered showers are also
moving across Puerto Rico. Gentle to moderate trades are seen
across the southern and northwestern portions of the Caribbean. In
the central Caribbean, light to gentle trades are observed. Fresh
winds are off the northern Colombian coast. Because of the mid to
upper level ridge dominating the region, subsidence is
suppressing convection.

The cold front will stall and gradually weaken through late Friday.
Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the
Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the waters near 31N60W and extends
southwest into a 1014 mb low near 27N70W. From this low, a cold
front extends south to northern Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near the low and frontal boundary
from 31N-20N between 57W-69W. Isolated showers are also moving
southwestward between the Bahamas and South Florida. Otherwise, a
1029 mb high pressure centered near 34N39W is ridging across most
of the south Atlantic waters. A 1016 mb low is to the northwest of
the Canary Islands near 30N21W and showers are within 160 nm of
the low.

Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the low slowly weakens
and drifts east toward 27N65W through late Friday. High pressure
will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through
Sunday, then continue east ahead of the next cold front expected
to move off the northeast Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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