[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is underway off the northeast coast of Florida associated
with a southward moving gale low near 28N77W. The gale is
presently north of 29N W of 77W with seas 10-18 ft. The gale is
forecast to continue until 28/1800 UTC. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to 02S19W to
02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05N-02N between 14W-20W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-08S and west of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
from the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W to north of Tampico
Mexico near 23N98W. Isolated showers are seen across the central
portion of the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging continues to
spread across the entire basin with some showers beginning to
enter the western Gulf off the Texas coast. Moderate to fresh
north- northeasterly winds are across the eastern portion of the
basin. Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds are in the
western Gulf, with light winds in the southwest Gulf.

The cold front is expected to dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong
N to NE winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf through Thursday.
The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Sunday
followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. Gale
conditions could be possible behind the front across the west-
central Gulf by Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is seen across the northwest Caribbean from central
Cuba near 21N78W to northern Belize near 18N88W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front particularly in the Gulf of
Honduras. Isolated showers are also streaming across eastern Cuba,
Jamaica, and west-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, showers continue
across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico with isolated showers across the
Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the
eastern Caribbean, with fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds
north of Colombia. Near the front, winds are gentle to moderate
out of the north behind the front, with east-southeast light to
gentle winds ahead of it. Strong subsidence continues across the
Caribbean with mid to upper level ridging which is suppressing
deep convection.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia through Thursday morning, then
mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the
forecast period. The cold front will stall and dissipate on
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters near 31N64W and extends westward
into a 1013 mb low pressure near 28N77W. From this low, the cold
front continues to extend southward across the central Bahamas and
into central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along and near the front, north of 24N and
west of 67W. A surface trough to the east of this front extends
from 34N56W to 23N67W. Scattered moderate convection continues
within 200 nm east of this feature due to upper level diffluence.
Across the rest of the basin, surface ridging extends throughout
the area to the Lesser Antilles. A 1017 mb low is centered north
of the Canary Islands near 33N15W which is generating showers east
of 24W and right off the coast of Morocco.

The low pressure will drift southeast toward 27N77W by Thursday
morning. Gale conditions and very rough seas will prevail N of 27N
and W of 75W through Thursday morning along with frequent gusts
to gale force off the coast of eastern Florida. The low pressure
will slowly weaken Thursday night into Friday as it moves eastward
along the front while the front will dissipate over the SE waters
on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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