[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1015 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N74W.
Strong to gale-force winds are expected across the northwest
semicircle of this low this morning through tonight, with seas to
13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N16W to 02S30W to the coast
of South America near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is SE
of the monsoon trough from 04N-04S between 00W-06W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 00N-02S between 30W-
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/0300 UTC, a cold front extends westward from the Straits
of Florida near 23N80W to a 1014 mb low near 23N83W. A cold front
continues to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N90W. A reinforcing
cold front extends from S Florida near 26N80W to 24N86W to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over the SE Gulf of Mexico from W Cuba to central Florida
E of 86W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the W Gulf from
26N97W to 22N96W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf W of
95W. 15-25 kt NE winds covers the Gulf. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the W Gulf with axis over Mexico along 100W. A
trough is over the E Gulf with axis over Florida along 80W. Upper
level diffluence is E of the trough axis over the W Atlantic
enhancing showers.

Strong NE winds will continue across the SE Gulf tonight. The
front and low will shift slowly SE tonight through Thu and weaken
as high pressure builds across the NW Gulf. High pressure will
then dominate the Gulf region through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers
are over the far NW Caribbean N of a line from W Cuba near 23N80W
to N Belize near 18N88W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the S
Caribbean S of 18N with strongest winds along the coast of N
Colombia. Scattered showers are noted over the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, and the SW Caribbean S
of 12N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. A broad
upper level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean with strong
subsidence suppressing convection.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through today before winds become moderate to fresh
winds Thu through Sun. An old frontal boundary across the Yucatan
Channel is sinking slowly southward into the NW Caribbean tonight
and will gradually stall and dissipate from NE coast of Honduras
to E Cuba Thu night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the remainder of the basin through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A stationary front is over the W
Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1015 mb low E of the N Bahamas near
26N74W. A cold front continues to the Straits of Florida near
23N80W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N70W to S Florida
near 26N80W. Scattered showers are over most of the W Atlantic W
of 62W and N of 24N. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 28N51W with ridging extending SE to the Leeward
Islands. Southwest of this feature, a surface trough extends from
24N34W to 16N48W. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over
the W Atlantic W of 70W enhancing showers. An upper level low is
centered W of the Canary Islands near 31N24W producing scattered
showers N of 24N between 14W-30W.

Over the W Atlantic, NE swell will propagate mainly across the
waters W of 68W through at least Thu. A reinforcing cold front
will move across the northern waters Thu morning through Fri and
then stall from 25N65W to the approaches of the Windward Passage
on Sat morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net