[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure centered
near 29N67W across the NW Bahamas and through the Straits of
Florida. The front will meander through Wed as a second low
pressure center develops along it near 27.5N74W tonight, and moves
NE and deepens through Thu. Strong to gale-force winds are
expected across the northwest semicircle of this low by Wednesday
morning through Wednesday night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from
03N-02S between 25W-31W. Scattered showers are noted along and
south of these boundaries mainly east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from the Straits of Florida
near 25N80W to a 1013 mb low near 23N86W to a 1014 mb low near
19N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
A surface trough is noted in scatterometer data behind the front
from 26N82W to 23N92W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northerly winds north of the trough over the eastern half of the
basin. Another trough is analyzed over the northwest Gulf from
28N96W to 24N95W with scattered showers. An upper level trough
extends into the western Gulf of Mexico with upper level
diffluence east of the wave axis enhancing convection particularly
in the eastern Gulf.

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are expected to be within
about 90 nm NW of the low/front. The front and low will shift slowly
SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba tonight through Thu and
weaken as high pressure builds across the NW Gulf. High pressure
will then dominate the Gulf region through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the southern half of the
basin, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The low/front
currently over the Yucatan Channel are enhancing scattered showers
across the far northwest Caribbean affecting western Cuba and
adjacent waters. Low-topped showers are moving quickly west with
the trades across the Greater Antilles. An upper level ridge
continues to sit over the Caribbean, providing strong subsidence
that is suppressing significant convection.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean through Wednesday night, then expect moderate
to fresh winds afterwards. An old frontal boundary across the
Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida will sink south into the
northwest Caribbean tonight and gradually stall and dissipate
from northeast coast of Honduras to east Cuba Thursday night.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the
basin through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A 1015 mb surface low is centered
over the western Atlantic near 30N67W, with a stationary front
extending southwest of the low to 25N80W. Scattered showers are
noted along and northwest of the front. Meanwhile, a 1023 mb high
is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N50W with ridging
extending across the Atlantic waters and into the northeast
Caribbean. Southwest of this feature, a surface trough extends
from 25N36W to 17N46W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered north
of the area near 43N20W.

The stationary front will meander through Wednesday as a second
low pressure center develops along it near 27.5N74W tonight, and
moves northeast and deepens through Thursday. Strong to gale-
force winds are expected across the NW semicircle of the low
center on Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds are also expected
behind the frontal boundary. NE swell behind these features will
propagate mainly across the waters north of 27N through at least
Thursday. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern
waters Thursday morning through Friday and then stall from 25N65W
to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net