[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

On 20/1200 UTC a 1013 mb low is forecast to be over the western
Atlantic near 29N67W. A cold front is forecast to extend south
from the low to 24N76W. A gale with NE winds is forecast north of
27N between 63W and 68W, with seas 8 to 10 ft. The gale is
expected to end on 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N25W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 03N-02S between 25W-31W. Scattered moderate
convection is also observed from 03N-04S between 10W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from the Straits of Florida
near 24N81W to a 1013 mb low near 23N86W to the southwest Gulf
near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 60 nm of the front. In addition, scattered moderate
convection is over the the southern and eastern portions of Gulf
of Mexico and as well as across central and southern Florida in
addition to Deep South Texas. Winds are N to NE between 20-30 kt
north of the front. An upper level trough extends into the western
Gulf of Mexico with upper level diffluence east of the wave axis
enhancing convection particularly in the eastern Gulf.

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are expected to be within
about 90 nm NW of the low/front. The low will move towards the NW
Bahamas this afternoon dragging the cold front and will move SE
of the area tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the
front moves SE of the Gulf waters. High pressure in the wake of
the front will dominate the Gulf region through Sat.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern Caribbean south of 17N has 10-30 kt trade winds. An
area just to the northwest of Colombia has winds between 25-30
kt. South of the stationary front located in the southern Gulf of
Mexico, winds are out of the south between 5-10 kt in the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are moving across Nicaragua
eastward across the central Caribbean toward Hispaniola. Isolated
showers are seen moving across Cuba and to the south of the
frontal boundary in the northwest Caribbean. Some showers are also
seen in the northern portions of the Lesser Antilles. An upper
level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean, providing strong
subsidence that is suppressing convection.

High pressure centered over the central Atlc will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night, then expect moderate to fresh winds
afterwards. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the remainder of the basin through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the western Atlantic near
30N67W, with a cold front extending southwest of the low to near
28N71W, becoming stationary from that point and stretches to the
Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the
east coast of Florida west of 74W. Meanwhile, a 1023 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 29N50W with ridging
extending across the Atlantic waters and into the northeast
Caribbean. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the east
Atlantic near 23N37W, with a trough extending along the low from
25N36W to 17N48W. Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm east of
the low. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered north of the area near
43N22W.

Another low pressure center, currently located over the Gulf of
Mexico, will move toward the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then to
near 29N67W by Wed morning. Strong to minimal gale force winds are
expected on the NW semicircle of the low center Wed and Wed night
over the NE corner of the forecast area. Fresh to strong winds
are also expected behind the frontal boundary. NE swell behind
these features will propagate mainly across the waters N of 27N
through at least Thu. A reinforcing cold front will move across
the northern waters Thu morning through Fri and then stall from
25N65W to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Sat morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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