[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

On 20/1200 UTC a 1012 mb low is forecast to be over the W Atlantic
near 29N67W. A cold front is forecast to extend S from the low to
24N71W. A gale with NE winds is forecast N of 27N between 63W and
72W, with seas 8 to 13 ft. The gale is expected to end on 21/0600
UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-
04S between 10W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-
07S between 22W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 19/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W to 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of
the front. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over the
E Gulf of Mexico and Florida, E of 85W and N of 25N. 20-30 kt N
to NE winds are N of the front. In the upper levels, a trough is
over the W Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of
the wave axis is enhancing the convection over the E Gulf.

The front will weaken this afternoon and winds will diminish
to strong covering mainly the SE basin. The front will transition
to a cold front and exit the region this evening. A new surface
ridge will build S across the area Wed and prevail through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern Caribbean S of 18N has 10-30 kt trade winds. The NW
Caribbean has 5-10 kt southerly winds, S of the Gulf of Mexico
stationary front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted inland over N Colombia. The Caribbean Sea is
void of convection. Some scattered showers are advecting to the
Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands from the tropical
Atlantic. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with
axis along 76W. Very strong subsidence is over the Caribbean
suppressing convection.

High pressure centered over the central Atlc will support
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean
Sea through early Wed, before the high moves E and winds diminish
for the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected
in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the remainder of
the area through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the W Atlantic near
31N67W, with a stationary front extending from the low to the
Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 29N52W. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the
e Atlantic near 26N39W, with a trough extending S from the low to
20N40W. Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm NE of the low.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered north of the area near
42N22W.

The frontal boundary will shift slowly SE through Wed to
eventually extend from 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Wed evening.
A new surface low will develop and move NE away from the Bahamas.
As the low develops, gale force winds are expected N of 29N E of
70W starting Wed morning and continuing through Wed night. A
reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Thu
morning through Fri and then stall from 25N65W to the approaches
of the Windward Passage on Sat morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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