[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
626 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient has tighten over the south-central
Caribbean enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia from 11N
to 12N between 74W-76W, where gale-force winds will return on
09/0000 UTC, with seas to 10 to 13 ft. Gale-force winds are
forecast to end again on 09/1200 UTC. Winds are expected to
increase again each night through early next week. Please refer
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the
African coast near 05N10W to 02N14W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough from 00N-05N
between 03W-10W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of the
ITCZ from 01N-03S between 20W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered over the northwest Atlantic near 33N68W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate SE winds across most of the
basin. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with
strong subsidence.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Sat.
A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sun, then
dissipate by Mon. High pres will once again build across the area
Mon through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

The tail-end of a dissipating stationary front continues to
linger along the eastern tip of Cuba from 21N74W to 19N80W.
Scattered showers are over E Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over the E Caribbean E of 68W. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over
the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and
weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trades over much of the central Caribbean until the middle of next
week, with gale force trades expected each night near the coast
of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the
remainder of the area through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 33N68W.
A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N51W and extends
southwest to 23N67W where the front transitions to a stationary
front to the eastern tip of Cuba near 21N74W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the fronts. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb centered near
36N28W.

The front will dissipate by Sat evening. High pressure will then
build N of the front across the area through Mon. A cold front
will enter the NW corner of the area Mon, then move across the
waters N of 27N through Tue night. High pressure will build over
the northern waters once again Wed and Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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