[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient has tighten over the south-central
Caribbean enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia from 11N
to 12N between 74W-76W, where gale-force winds will return tonight,
with seas to 10 to 12 ft. Winds have diminished during the
daytime hours and is expected to increase again each night
through early next week. Please refer the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African
coast near 06N11W to 02N14W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough from 03N to 02S between 14W to 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered over the northwest Atlantic near 38N70W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with
strong subsidence with a surface trough extending over the Bay of
Campeche adjacent to the eastern Mexican coast.

High pressure will prevail through Sat. Southerly return flow
will develop and strengthen this weekend. A weak cold front will
move into the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Sun, and dissipate
by Mon as high pressure builds back into the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

The tail-end of a stationary front continues to linger along the
eastern tip of Cuba near 20N72W to 17N81W. Scattered showers are
over E Cuba. Northeast moderate winds prevail west of the front
mainly west of 79W, while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
east of the front. Strongest winds are along the coast of north
Colombia. Patches of scattered showers are observed near the
frontal boundary over the E Caribbean E of 70W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through
early next week, with gale force nocturnal trades expected near
the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue
across the remainder of the area through early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 38N70W.
East of this high, a cold front enters the discussion area near
30N53W and extends southwest through 23N67W. The tail-end of the
boundary transitions to a stationary front from 23N67W to the
eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the front between 50W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb centered near 35N27W.

The cold front will stall by tonight and will gradually dissipate
by Sat. High pressure will then build and prevail across the area
through Mon. A cold front will move into the northwest part of
the area Mon, and move across the waters N of 27N through Tue
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR/MMT
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