[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central
Caribbean by Thursday night, enhancing the winds near the coast of
Colombia south of 12N between 74W-76W. In this area, gale-force
winds are expected to develop. Winds will diminish during the
daytime hours, and pick up again overnight. These conditions will
repeat each night through early next week. Please refer the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African
coast near 05N10W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough, while scattered to numerous
moderate convection prevails within 150 nm north of the ITCZ
mainly west of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered to the north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail most of the basin, while fresh to strong northerly
winds are noted in latest scatterometer data over the Bay of
Campeche.

The high pressure will shift to east of the region by Fri night.
Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up over
much of the western and central Gulf waters through Sat. A weak
cold front is expected to move over the NW Gulf early on Sun and
reach from the NE Gulf to near 28N90W, where it will become
stationary to northeastern Mexico on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W to
20N87W. Scattered showers are seen within 90 nm on either side of
the front. The latest scatterometer pass depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds across the west Caribbean, while moderate to
fresh trades easterlies cover the remainder of the basin.
Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving
quickly westward over portions of the Greater Antilles and
adjacent waters.

The stationary front will become weak and dissipate on Thu.
Strong high pressure building across the waters behind the front
will tighten the pressure gradient in the Caribbean. Trades over
the central Caribbean will be enhanced through early next week.
Gale force easterly winds along the coast of Colombia are expected
to develop during the nighttime hours beginning on Thu through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N60W to 21N76W.
Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm ahead of the front mainly
north of 24N. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 33N33W.

The front will continue to move eastward, reach from near
25N65W to Hispaniola by early Thu, then weaken and dissipate by
early on Sat as high pressure building in behind it shifts
eastward through the next few days. A weak cold front is
expected to move over the far northwest waters on Mon. Otherwise,
tranquil conditions are expected over the forecast waters for the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. In the far eastern
Atlantic, off the coast of Morocco, Meteo France is forecasting
near gale to gale northerly winds during the period from 07/1200
UTC to 08/1200 UTC in marine zones AGADIR and east of TARFAYA.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net