[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central
Caribbean by Thursday night, enhancing the winds near the coast of
Colombia south of 12N between 73W-77W. In this area, gale-force
winds are expected to develop. Winds will diminish during the
daytime hours, and pick up again overnight. These conditions will
repeat each night through the weekend. Please refer the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African
coast near 04N07W to 01S15W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 04S32W to the coast of Brazil near 03S30W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 180 nm north of the ITCZ
and 150 nm to the south between 27W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front that was previously in the Gulf of Mexico has moved
out of the basin and is in the NW Caribbean Sea as a stationary
front. Strong winds are still affecting the SW Gulf, while fresh
NE winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. A surface trough is over
the SW Gulf of Mexico extending from 24N96W to the Bay of Campeche
near 18N93W. Isolated showers and overcast clouds cover the
southwest Gulf. Seas of 9 to 13 ft will continue over portions of
the SW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, diminishing during the
evening.

Strong high pressure is building across the area in the wake of a
recent cold front. Strong northeast winds over the southern half
of the Gulf and strong to near gale force northwest to north winds
over the far SW Gulf will gradually diminish through early on Thu.
The high pressure will shift to east of the region by late Fri
night. Fresh to locally strong southeast to south return flow will
set up over much of the western and central Gulf waters Fri night
and Sat. A weak cold front is expected to move over the NW Gulf
early on Sun and reach from the NE Gulf to near 28N90W, where it
will become stationary to northeastern Mexico on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N80W across the NW
Caribbean Sea to 21N83W to the Yucatan Peninsula as a dissipating
front to 19N87W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen within 90 nm of the front. The latest scatterometer pass
shows fresh N to NE winds across the NW Caribbean and moderate to
fresh trades cover the eastern and central Caribbean. Satellite
imagery shows isolated low- topped showers moving westward over
portions of the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades cover
the eastern and central Caribbean.

A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W. The front is forecast to dissipate
on Thu. Strong high pressure building across the waters behind
the front will tighten the pressure gradient in the Caribbean Sea.
Trades over the central Caribbean Sea will be enhanced through
early next week. The resultant strong pressure gradient will bring
gale force northeast to east winds along the coast of Colombia
during the nighttime hours beginning on Thu and expected to
continue into early next week. No large long-period swell will
impact the tropical N Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas near 23N74W to central Cuba near 22N77W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm ahead of the front
north of 28N. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 180 nm
of the front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near
32N35W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 30N09W to
23N19W to 22N31W. No significant showers are noted with the
trough.

A cold front over the west Atlantic from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas will continue to move eastward, reach from near 25N65W to
Hispaniola by early Thu, then weaken and dissipate by early on
Sat as high pressure building in behind it shifts eastward through
the next few days. A weak cold front is expected to move over the
far northwest waters on Mon. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions
are expected over the forecast waters for the upcoming weekend
and into early next week. In the far eastern Atlantic, off the
coast of Morocco, Meteo France is forecasting near gale to gale
northerly winds during the period from 07/1200 UTC to 08/1200 UTC
in marine zones AGADIR and TARFAYA.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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