[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N23W to 03S30W to
the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 02N-10S between 23W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is just inland over the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
Further inland a cold front is over central Texas approaching the
coast. Observations along the coast of Texas indicate persistent
dense fog. Offshore platforms indicate 3 to 5 nm in fog. Regional
radar is showing moderate showers and a few thunderstorms moving
over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N and over N Florida. Fair
conditions prevail elsewhere with moderate SE winds 1 to 3 ft
seas.

A cold front will enter the far NW Gulf Sun afternoon. The front
will gradually move eastward across the Gulf, shifting E of the
area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow behind the
front, with gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz
Mexico Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the E
Caribbean E of 70W. These showers are being enhanced by upper
level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough over the W
Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Central
America from Honduras to W Panama.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south central
Caribbean through Wed, then increase in coverage across the
central Caribbean Thu. Winds will freshen over the eastern
Caribbean Mon night and Tue. East swell will propagate through the
tropical Atlantic waters Sun through Tue, then subside on Wed. A
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall
from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N75W. A
surface trough is further E from 27N66W to 24N70W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1030 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 33N20W. Saharan dust covers much of the
region north of 10N east of 35W. Recent scatterometer passes
indicate fresh to occasionally strong trade winds, with seas
generally 8 to 12 ft in NE swell. Of note in the upper levels,
upper level diffluence is over the central Atlantic N of 25N
between 50W-64W due to a sharp upper level trough over the W
Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure will prevail over
the forecast waters through Sun before retreating eastward. A cold
front will move into the NW waters Mon. The front will shift E
and reach from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu. Strong
winds preceding and following the front will affect the waters to
the north of 28N Tue night through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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