[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains in Africa. The ITCZ continues from
05N10W to 00N23W to the coast of Brazil near 05S34W. Scattered
moderate convection are active from 06S to the Equator between
25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front enters the NW Gulf of Mexico near 30N87W
to 27N97W. Observations along the coast of Texas indicate
persistent dense fog north of the stationary front. Offshore
platforms indicate 3 to 5 nm in fog, south of the frontal
boundary. Regional radar is showing moderate showers and a few
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, moving
onshore near Panama City Florida, and reaching across north
central Florida to Jacksonville. Fair conditions prevail
elsewhere with moderate SE winds 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Gulf will
weaken and move inland as a warm front tonight. A cold front will
enter the far NW Gulf Sun. The front will gradually move eastward
across the Gulf, shifting E of the area Wed. Strong winds and
building seas will follow behind the front, with gale conditions
possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp mid to upper trough reaching from off the east coast of
Florida to the Gulf of Honduras is supporting a surface trough
from the southern Bahamas through eastern Cuba to just east of
Jamaica. Scattered showers are noted through the Jamaica Channel
between Jamaica and southeast Cuba to as far west as south of
Grand Cayman Island. Regional radar is showing isolated showers
across the Windward and Leeward Islands in moderate trade wind
flow, except for scattered showers farther south over Trinidad
and Tobago where fresh trade winds are noted. Generally fair
conditions are noted elsewhere. Scatterometer data is indicating
fresh to strong trade winds are noted across the south central
Caribbean, likely reaching near gale off the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the south central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in coverage
across the central Caribbean Thu. Winds will freshen over the
eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. East swell will propagate
through the tropical Atlantic waters Sun through Tue, then subside
on Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front
will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An mid to upper level disturbance move over the southeast United
States is support scattered showers and thunderstorms off the
northeast coast of Florida, ahead of a frontal boundary stalling
across Georgia. Farther east, a weak ridge persists along 28N,
maintaining gentle to light winds across the Atlantic north of
20N, and moderate to fresh trades farther south. Seas are 4 to 6
ft over open waters west of 65W, and 6 to 9 ft between 35W and
65W. Over the tropical Atlantic, divergence aloft on the southeast
side of an upper trough along with modest trade wind convergence
is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of
the ITCZ west of 27W.

Farther east, Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N
east of 35W. Recent scatterometer passes indicate fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds, with seas generally 8 to 12 ft in
NE swell.

For the forecast over the W Atlantic, high pressure will prevail
over the forecast waters through Sun before retreating eastward. A
cold front will move into the NW waters Mon. The front will shift
E and reach from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu. Strong
winds preceding and following the front will affect the waters to
the north of 28N Tue night through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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