[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
523 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 07N11W to
03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02S28W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-03S between 00W-10W, and from 02N-08S between 26W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N94W to
S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers are over the N Gulf of
Mexico N of 27N between 83W-93W. A surface trough is over the SW
Gulf from 24N90W to 18N92W that is void of precipitation, but has
a distinct wind shift. Elsewhere, 5-15 kt southerly surface winds
are E of the front with strongest winds N of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

Moist onshore flow will promote areas of dense fog
within 30 nm of the coast between Brownsville Texas and High
Island Texas until mid afternoon today. A frontal boundary along
the Texas coast will move inland this morning. High pressure
ridging WSW over the basin from the Atlc will maintain light to
moderate SE winds over the basin today and tonight. A cold front
will move over the NW Gulf Sun, then slowly shift SE across the
Gulf through Wed. Strong N winds and building seas will follow
behind the front, with gale conditions possible for the waters
near Veracruz Mexico Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the E
Caribbean E of 74W, and along the coasts of Honduras and
Nicaragua from 11N-17N between 82W-85W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is inland over N Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean through Wed. Winds will freshen over the eastern
Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Long period northerly swell will
propagate through tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean
Passages through Sat. Long period E swell will pass through the
tropical Atlantic waters Sun night through Tue night, then subside
Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N between 71W-
77W due to upper level diffluence. Otherwise, surface high
pressure dominates the region supported by a 1032 mb high near
34N20W. This surface ridge is supporting mostly fair weather
across the eastern and central Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure ridging along 28N will linger
over the forecast waters through Sun. A cold front will move off
the Florida coast Mon afternoon, then move SE across the forecast
waters to extend from SE of Bermuda near 31N62W to near the
Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong winds preceding and
following the front will affect the waters N of 28N Tue night
through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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