[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support gale force winds beginning late tonight and
through Sunday morning. Seas of 12-14 ft are expected across the
south-central Caribbean before diminishing substantially on
Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 36W south of 12N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted near this feature from 05N-08N within 60 nm of
the axis.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles in the central
Atlantic with axis near 60W south of 17N, moving west around 20
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist from 12N-16N
between 54W-61W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is located north of Costa Rica
with an axis near 83W south of 16N, moving west around 10-15 kt.
No significant showers or thunderstorms are present near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 14N17W to
06N32W. The ITCZ begins near 05N38W to 05N47W. Aside from the
convection described near the tropical wave along 32W, scattered
moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 08N-11N
between 12W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1022 mb high
pressure near 28N87W. No significant convection is occurring over
the Gulf at this time. Winds under the high are light and variable
in the eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, winds are moderate to
fresh out of the southeast.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves
west- northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will
prevail over the eastern Gulf through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for more information
on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

As a mid to low-level ridge brings subsidence to the basin,
significant convection is limited in development across most of
the basin. There is scattered moderate convection seen in the SW
Caribbean due to the monsoon trough off the coasts of Panama and
Costa Rica, S of 10N between 78W-83W. Trade winds in the central
Caribbean are fresh to strong, with moderate winds in the eastern
and western basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean.

Because of the Saharan Air Layer and robust mid to low-level
ridge dominating the area, Cuba experienced very warm conditions
today. Veguitas, Granma recorded a high temperature of 99.8
degrees Fahrenheit. There were 28 stations across Cuba that
reported 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, with 10 of these
stations recording near 97 degrees.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia through early Sunday morning. Strong to near gale
force winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Tuesday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Convection over the U.S. continues to ride over the mid-level
ridge into the SE U.S. and over the western Atlantic waters.
Convection is noted just off the Jacksonville, Florida coast, N
of 30N and W of 81W. Convection is also observed moving
southeastward in the western Atlantic from 30N- 31N between 75W-
78W with frequent lightning. Another line of thunderstorms has
pressed farther east in this area of the basin, from 30N-32N
between 68W- 72W. Finally, in the central Atlantic, a pre-frontal
trough, analyzed from 3950W to 29N62W, is providing focus for a
line of thunderstorms from 29N- 33N between 53W-60W. A dying cold
front enters the water near 31N61W and stretches west of 28N71W.
Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are seen from 28N-30N
between 51W-60W. Otherwise, a 1025 mb high near 27N42W dominates
the rest of the basin.

High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually
weaken through early next week as the tail of a weak cold front
moves across the northern waters. A low pressure will move into
the north-central waters on Monday evening and meander in the
region through Wednesday when it will weaken into a surface
trough. The surface trough will drift NW across the Bahamas
through Thursday evening before dissipating.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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