[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low are supporting peak winds just northwest of the Colombia
coast of near gale, as observed by the ASCAT scatterometer. These
will increase to gale force winds beginning late tonight and
through mid-Sunday morning. An altimeter pass earlier today
indicated a large area of 8 ft seas, extending from Jamaica to
Costa Rica with peak around 12 ft. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected
across the south-central Caribbean on Sunday before diminishing
substantially on Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 32W south of 10N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted near this feature from 05N-08N within 60 nm of
the axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed just east of the Lesser Antilles in
the central Atlantic with axis near 58W south of 15N, moving west
around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist from
10N-15N between 54W-58W.

A west Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern Panama
near 81W S of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant
showers or thunderstorms are present near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 10N14W to
07N26W. The ITCZ begins near 07N26W to 07N29W, then it continues
west of a tropical wave near 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana
near 05N53W. Aside from the convection described near the
tropical wave along 32W, no significant deep convection is
occurring in association with the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the Florida peninsula and a ridge
runs west-northwestward toward Texas. With the pressure gradient
weak south of the ridge, E to SE winds are generally 10-20 kt.
Seas are also generally low, though peak at 6-7 ft in the western
Gulf. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf this
afternoon.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wed as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail
over the eastern Gulf through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for more information
on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia through early Sun morning. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night
through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A 1024 mb Bermuda-Azores high is centered near 27N42W with ridging
extending westward to Florida and eastward to the Canary Islands.
Winds south of the ridge are generally quescent with peak trade winds
of only 20 kt in the central Atlantic. A cold front and a pre-
frontal trough are located near 30N from near 65W to 73W. Winds
associated with the trough and front are 20 kt or weaker. No
significant convection is occurring over the tropical North
Atlantic this afternoon.

High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually
weaken through early next week as the tail of a weak cold front
moves across the northern waters. A low pressure will move into
the north-central waters on Mon evening and meander in the region
through Wed when it will weaken into a surface trough. The surface
trough will drift NW across the Bahamas through Thu evening
before dissipating.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea/Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net