[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 10N between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 13N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to
10N between 30W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 13N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 04N to 10N between 40W and 50W. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are from 08N to 10N between 50W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 17N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area
that is from 10N to 17N between 58W and 65W. The wave is moving
through the area that is on the eastern side of an upper level
trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 18N
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent with this wave at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N19W and 07N23W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N35W and 06N40W, and to the
coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on the
eastern side of a trough in Mexico that is between 98W and 102W.

A surface ridge extends from NE Florida, into the central Gulf
of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are along western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Other rainshowers are possible, to the
south and east of the line that runs from 30N80W to 28N93W to
21N97W.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near
28N54W, to 22N62W, across Puerto Rico, to 16N67W, and to NW
Venezuela/northern Colombia. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the area that is from 10N to 17N between 58W
and 65W.

Lingering widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are along the Caribbean Sea side of Cuba, from 20N
northward between SE Cuba and 80W.

High pressure, to the north of the area, will support strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the remainder
of the weekend. High pressure will strengthen early next week.
The wind speeds will increase to near-gale force off Colombia
and Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds also are expected to pulse
in the Gulf of Honduras at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 38N36W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, to the north
of the line that passes through 32N46W to 26N40W to 18N36W to
25N15W. A cold front passes through 32N60W to 31N63W. The
southernmost point of a warm front is 34N48W. A surface trough
is along 31N49W 28N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the
area that is from 20N northward between 20W and 70W.

An upper level trough is along 28N54W 22N62W, across Puerto
Rico, to 16N67W, and to NW Venezuela/northern Colombia. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea
and parts of the Atlantic Ocean that from 10N to 17N between 58W
and 65W.

A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Thursday,
as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic Ocean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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