[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near
the wave axis south of 12N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 13N southward,
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 180 nm
either side of the wave axis from 03N-09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46/47W from 13N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are within 210
nm E of the wave axis from 06N-10N. The wave is likely to enhance
showers and tstorms over the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on
Monday.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 08N-17N,
moving W near 20 kt. GOES-16 and CIRA imagery show a low-mid level
moisture maximum accompanying the wave. Scattered showers and
tstorms are affecting the southern Leeward Islands, Windward
Islands, Trinidad and NE Venezuela. Isolated showers and tstorms
are seen over the E Caribbean E of 67W, mostly S of 15N. Expect
enhanced showers and tstorms beginning late tonight and early
Sunday over the ABC Islands, and later on Sunday over Puerto Rico.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 07N-18N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered tstorms over
northern Venezuela, but it is not producing any significant
shower activity over the waters of the Caribbean at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W
to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 06N33W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 05N36W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is seen within
90 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms
continues over the southern Gulf of Mexico stretching from the Bay
of Campeche to southern Florida. This is due to upper-level
diffluence as well as mid to upper level moisture advection into
the area. A surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche.
East of the trough, strong south-southeast winds were seen on the
ASCAT pass from midday Saturday from 20N-23N between 94.5W-96W.
Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge stretches over the northeastern
and north-central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are seen over the
eastern half of the Gulf. High pressure ridging will prevail
across the basin through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean, while
upper-level cyclonic flow prevails across the eastern Caribbean.
High pressure over the western Atlantic is inducing fresh trades
across the central Caribbean, with strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean off of Colombia.

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. See
section above for details. High atmospheric moisture content
stretching from Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing
diurnal afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered tstorms associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough
are seen over Panama and over the far SW Caribbean S of 10N and W
of 80W.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean this weekend. High pressure will
strengthen early next week, and winds will increase to near gale
force off Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 32N64W and
stretches west to 30N73W. The front then stalls from 30N73W to
the coast of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen south of the stationary front from 24N-28N between 73W-82W,
including over southern and central Florida as well as the
northwest Bahamas. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level
diffluence and high atmospheric moisture content. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms prevail along and within 90 nm S of
the cold front between 65W-73W. A 1022 mb high is near 30N62W. A
surface trough containing isolated showers extends from 31N48W to
28N56W. Farther E, a weakening cold front is analyzed from 32N24W
to 28N26W to 26N30W, weakening stationary to 26N49W. Little to no
shower activity is seen with the front, as high pressure is
starting to build in over the region.

The stationary front along 30N will lift north of the area as a
warm front tonight. A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic
through Thu as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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