[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

A tropical wave has an axis along 22W from 04N-12N, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the
wave axis. While deep layer moisture is abundant along the wave
axis based on the TPW product, plenty of Saharan dust is noted
north of 12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal.

A tropical wave extends along 35W from 03N-12N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers is observed in the vicinity of the
wave.

A tropical wave is along 49W from 04N-14N, moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. The GOES-16 LPW
products show a maximum in low-mid level moisture. Abundant
Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES-16 RGB
Geocolor imagery a few hours ago, prior to sunset.

The tropical wave is along 63W from 07N-18N. Scattered shower
activity is noted along the Lesser Antilles Islands west of the
wave axis. A distinct maximum in total precipitable water
accompanies the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 06N32W, then continues
west of a tropical wave near 05N37W to the mouth of the Amazon
River near 01N49W. Aside of the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted extending
100 nm to the north and south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend
near 30N84W to 27N87W, then stalls from 27N87W to 26N94W. Farther
south, a surface trough extends from 26N86W to 18N92W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the front north of 26N-30N and
east of 87W. In addition, scattered moderate convection is noted
along the trough axis extending 180 nm SE of the trough. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is in the Yucatan Peninsula
extending into the Bay of Campeche from 19N south to 18N.

Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
over the SE Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Drier conditions are over
the NW Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front.

A cold front over the northern Gulf will stall and lift north of
the area later today. High pressure will build across the area
this weekend and prevail through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is bringing scattered showers to the Windward
Islands. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Most
of the Caribbean waters are currently free of significant shower
activity, although scattered showers and tstorms are seen near
the land areas of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, SE Cuba and
Hispaniola. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
over the Gulf of Honduras into Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, and
south into Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail throughout much of the Caribbean, with locally strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean, and gentle winds from the
Windward Passage to South of Cuba.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds
in the south central Caribbean through the weekend. The ridge in
the central Atlantic will strengthen early next week, and winds
will increase near Colombia and Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper-level diffluence over Florida along the SE base of an
upper-trough over the eastern U.S. is inducing scattered moderate
convection over the Florida Peninsula. Also, scattered showers
and tstorms are seen over the western Atlantic north of 25N and
75W west, including the Florida Keys and Florida Straits, as well
as the central and northern Bahamas.

A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023
mb high pressure centered near 29N56W. A cold front enters the
area near 31N29W to 7N39W. A surface trough extends at the end of
the front at that point to 27N48W. Scattered showers are seen
along the vicinity of the front and trough. There is an area of
scattered moderate convection northeast of the front.

A cold front off the southeast U.S. coast will shift eastward
across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will
build into the central Atlantic early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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