[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

A tropical wave has an axis along 21W from 04N-12N, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate showers are seen in the vicinity
of the wave axis. While deep layer moisture is abundant along the
wave axis based on the TPW product, plenty of Saharan dust is
noted north of 12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of
Senegal.

A tropical wave extends along 34W from 03N-12N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers is observed from 07N-12N along and
between 32W-36W.

A tropical wave is along 48/49W from 05N-15N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered showers are noted from 05N-07N between 46W-52W. The
GOES-16 LPW products show a maximum in low-mid level moisture.
Abundant Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES-16
RGB Geocolor imagery a few hours ago, prior to sunset.

The tropical wave is along 61W from 06N-18N. Scattered shower
activity is noted along the Lesser Antilles Islands. A distinct
maximum in total precipitable water accompanies the wave along
60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N32W, then
continues west of a tropical wave near 05N36W to the mouth of the
Amazon River near 00N50W. Aside of the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted extending
100 nm to the north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend
near 30N85W to 27N93W, then dissipates from 27N93W to 27N97W.
Farther south, a surface trough extends from 27N86W to 21N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the front north of
27N-30N and east of 90W. In addition, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted along the trough axis and 180 nm SE of
the trough. A surface trough is observed along the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N and west of 92W.

Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
over the SE Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Drier conditions are over
the NW Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front with a 1018 mb high
pressure building behind it.

A cold front over the northern Gulf will stall and lift north of
the area Fri. High pressure will build across the area this
weekend and prevail through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is bringing scattered showers to the Windward
Islands. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Most
of the Caribbean waters are currently free of significant shower
activity, although scattered showers and tstorms are seen near
the land areas of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, SE Cuba and
Hispaniola, left over from the afternoon heating. Scattered
moderate convection is seen over Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica
and Panama. Moderate to fresh trades prevail throughout much of
the Caribbean, with locally strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean, and gentle winds from the Windward Passage to South
of Cuba.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds
in the south central Caribbean through Mon before increasing in
areal extent Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper-level diffluence over Florida along the SE base of an
upper- trough over the eastern U.S. is inducing scattered moderate
convection over the Florida Peninsula. Also, scattered showers
and tstorms are seen over the western Atlantic north of 25N and
west of 75W, including the Florida Keys and Florida Straits, as
well as the central and northern Bahamas.

A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1024
mb high pressure centered near 29N56W. A cold front enters the area
near 31N31W to 27N40W. A surface trough extends at the end of the
front to 27N48W. Scattered showers are seen along the front and
trough. Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between 25W-
30W.

A high pressure ridge, that currently extends W from the 1025 mb
high near 30N55W, will shift eastward through Fri. A cold front
will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight and shift eastward
across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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