[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 16W/17W from 06N
to 12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant weather is
noted near the wave axis at this time. While deep layer moisture
is abundant along the wave axis, Saharan dust is noted north of
12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 30W/31W from 02N to
10N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 03N to 06N between 25W and 35W, related to the
tropical wave and the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 45W/46W from 04N to
11N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant weather is
associated with this wave.

An Caribbean tropical wave is south of 15N just west of the
Leeward and Windward Islands near 61W/62W, drifting west at 5 to
10 kt. The wave is in an area of fairly dry mid level air on the
west side of a mid to upper trough, and no significant weather is
associated with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to the
mouth of the Amazon River near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 03N to 06N between 25W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalling front reaches from near Panama City Florida to south of
Brownsville Texas along the Tamaulipas coast near 25N98W. A mid to
upper trough reaching from the Ohio Valley to coastal Texas is
supporting a reinforcing front still north of the area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active in a broad swath ahead of the
mid to upper trough, from the southwest Gulf through the northeast
Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas persist across
the Gulf.

The reinforcing cold front will enter the northern Gulf and merge
with the stalled front Fri. The combined front will then lift
slowly north of the area through Sat. Winds will increase over
the western Gulf as high pressure shifts W across the SE United
States and low pres develops over the plains states.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp mid to upper level trough is analyzed along the east coast
of Florida through central Cuba. Divergence aloft on the
southeastern quadrant of the trough is supporting a few
thunderstorms between eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti, just
outside the Windward Passage. Mid level dry air is evident over
the northeast Caribbean, south of another, broader mid to upper
level trough north of the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are active over the far southwest Caribbean, along the coast of
Panama and Costa Rica, near the monsoon trough. No other
significant thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere. Fresh to
strong trade winds are active off the coast of northeast Colombia,
with seas of 7 to 9 ft covering most of the south central and
southwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades persist elsewhere
with 5 to 7 ft seas over the eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 seas
over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Mon,
with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, a sharp mid to upper-level trough just off the east
coast of Florida is supporting scattered thunderstorms over the
central Bahamas and northeast of the northern Bahamas this
morning. At the surface, a ridge along roughly 28N is supporting
moderate SE to S flow across the region, except for fresh to
strong easterly winds pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola as noted
in ship observations and an earlier scatterometer satellite pass.
Elsewhere seas are 2 to 4 ft. The high pressure across the
region will shift east through Fri. A cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and shift eastward across the waters
north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front.

Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 34N45W is
building to the north of a weak cold front drifting into the
forecast area from 32N36W to 29N51W. A mid to upper trough reaches
from 32N35W to just north of Puerto Rico. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh trade winds in the deep tropics
well east of Barbados, between the high pressure north of the area
and an a tropical wave approaching from the east. Convergence of
the trade winds along with upper support southeast of the upper
trough is support clusters of thunderstorms off the coast of
Guyana at this time.

Over the eastern Atlantic, Saharan dust is evident north of
roughly 11N reaching as far west as 40W. Weak ridging is support
moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough as noted in various
scatterometer passes. Concurrent altimeter passes showed seas
roughly 5 to 7 ft. Other than the showers and thunderstorms
active along the ITCZ between 25W and 35W, no significant weather
is observed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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