[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130531 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Corrected second paragraph Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N30W
to 10N30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found from 03N to 07N between 25W and 35W. TPW satellite imagery
indicates the wave is embedded in deep layer moisture.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N45W
to 13N44W. This feature has no significant convection currently
associated with it. Satellite imagery shows the wave is surrounded
by a dry SAL air mass.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N60W
to 15N60W. This feature also has no significant convection
currently associated with it. TPW satellite imagery and the
Barbados 12Z sounding show convection in the vicinity of the wave
is inhibited by a mid-level layer of dry air.

In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave has an axis extending from
06N85W to 16N85W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection associated with the wave is present S of the Caribbean
mainly over Honduras and El Salvador from 12N to 16N between 86W
and 90W. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in
deep layer moisture.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06N30W, then
resumes near 05N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 06N to 11N between 12W and
18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches from near Biloxi Mississippi across
the Mouth of the Mississippi River to 28N94W to near Brownsville
Texas near 26N97W. A trough crosses the Gulf S of the front from
26N89W to 23N96W. An upper level trough stretches from central
Texas to near Cabo Corrientes Mexico. Upper level divergence east
of this trough is combining with deep layer moisture pooling near
the front and trough to generate scattered moderate convection
over the NW half of the Gulf except within 120 nm of the Texas
coast. A thermally induced trough curves along the W coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N91W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is seen primarily over SE Mexico from
16N to 19N between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 19N to 23N between 86W and 90W. Light to gentle
winds are seen across the basin.

The cold front will stall across the north Gulf today, then lift
slowly N to near the northern Gulf coast. A second front will push
S across the southern United States toward the northern Gulf and
merge with the first cold front Friday. The combined front will
then lift slowly north of the area through Saturday. Winds will
increase over the western Gulf as high pressure shifts W across
the SE United States and low pres develops over the plains states.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The only significant convective activity in the Caribbean is
confined to the SW portion of the basin near the monsoon trough
axis, which crosses Panama and follows the NW coast of Colombia
to 1009 mb low pres centered near 10N75W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is taking place near the coast of
Panama from 08N to 10N between 79W and 84W. Trade winds are
moderate to fresh over the central Caribbean, except along the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, where winds are fresh to strong.
Gentle to moderate trades are noted over the NW Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Saturday, with
moderate to locally fresh trades prevailing elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extending from 29N79W to near Jamaica is
producing upper level divergence over the Bahamas. The trough has
begun to weaken and lift out to the NE during the next couple of
days. Convection over the Bahamas has diminished to isolated.

A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N38W and
curves WSW to 29N54W. A weak trough lies just SW of the front from
28N51W to 26N56W. Cloudiness and low-topped showers are seen
within 120 nm either side of the front. Double barreled 1026 mb
high pressure is analyzed near 40N25W and near 35N45W. Ridging on
the south side of these anticyclones is maintaining fair weather
and light to moderate trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the
ITCZ and S of 25N between 25W and 60W.

The high pressure ridge over the western Atlc will shift east
through Friday. This will enable a cold front to move off the
southeast U.S. coast tonight, then progress E across the waters
north of 30N through Saturday. High pressure will push E from the
SE United States toward Bermuda in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAM
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