[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W S of 09N and is moving
west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within the vicinity
of this feature, but no significant convection is seen at this
time.

An Atlantic tropical wave is seen along 48W S of 09N and is moving
west around 20 kt. Light showers are seen near this feature and
along the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W S of 13N and is moving
west 15 kt. Scattered convection is seen in central Venezuela
near this feature.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W S of 12N into Costa
Rica and the East Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is
seen in the western Caribbean from 10N-12N between 79W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to 04N47W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 04N49W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of
Africa from 06N-09N between 13W-17W and more scattered showers
along the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward and enters the forecast area
from the FL Panhandle near 30N86W to South Padre Island, Texas
near 26N97W. The weak front continues across South Texas into
Mexico as a stationary front. Upper level disturbance is currently
digging across the northeast Gulf/north Florida and providing
upper level divergence to give way to scattered moderate
convection across the eastern Gulf east of 92W. A surface trough
extends from 29N84W to 25N89W. Scattered showers are noted near
the vicinity of the trough and the cold front 100 nm northwest. In
the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are
seen. In the western Gulf, light to gentle northerly winds are
seen and veering to the west in the northwest and central Gulf. A
surface trough is also present across the Yucatan peninsula.
Scattered moderate convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche from
20N south between 91W-93W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
expected in the wake of the front during the overnight hours.

A cold front from the Florida panhandle to southern Texas will
stall and weaken this morning, then linger as a stationary front
in the northern Gulf through Thu. Southerly winds will increase in
the western Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico giving way to upper level divergence, with
anticyclonic flow to the north of the Greater Antilles bringing
moist southeasterly flow. This is bringing moderate to strong
convection north of Cuba and in the Bahamas. A few showers are
also extend across the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across Panama and Costa Rica due to the
proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere, isolated
showers are possible along the central Caribbean but no
significant strong convection is noted with this activity at this
time. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen in the eastern and
southern Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western
basin.

Weak high pressure north of the area will support moderate to
locally fresh trades across most of the Caribbean for the next
several days. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the
south-central Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is seen moving across the central Atlantic,
with an upper level ridge to the west of it. This is helping the
upper level trough over the northeast Gulf to dig across the area,
giving way to upper level divergence across the western Atlantic.
Scattered moderate convection is seen in this area moving off of
Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas and off the Florida
coast. Most of this activity is south of 26N and west of 68W. A
surface trough is extending from western Hispaniola into the
Atlantic, from 18N73W to 23N70W. Surface ridging from a 1030 mb
high pressure near 44N32W is seen across the rest of the basin
with tranquil conditions.

Near-gale conditions are expected by Agadir, E of 30W over the
next few days. See Meteo-France for more detailed information on
this.

A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds will develop ahead of the front Wed
night and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most
of the remaining forecast area through Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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