[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W S of 09N and is moving
west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within the vicinity
of this feature, but no significant convection is seen at this
time.

An Atlantic tropical wave is seen along 48W S of 09N and is
moving west around 20 kt. Light showers are seen near this feature
and along the ITCZ, from 02N-07N between 47W-49W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W S of 12N and is moving
west 10 kt. Scattered convection is seen in central Venezuela
near this feature.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W S of 12N into Panama
and the East Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is seen
in the western Caribbean from 10N-12N between 78W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to 04N47W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 04N49W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is moving of from 05N-
09N between 13W-18W off the coast of Africa and more scattered
shower activity along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low in the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W has weak cold
front extending southwestward to 25N87W. An upper level disturbance
is currently digging across the northeast Gulf/north Florida and
providing upper level divergence to give way to scattered moderate
convection across the eastern Gulf east of 92W. There is another
cold front which enters the northern Gulf near 30N88W to 28N95W,
then crosses south Texas into northern Mexico as a stationary
front. The most significant convection is over land. There is
also scattered showers along the boundary. In the eastern Gulf,
gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are seen. In the western
Gulf, light to gentle northerly winds are seen and veering to the
west in the northwest and central Gulf.

A cold front entering the NW Gulf will merge with another weak
cold front located over the NE Gulf tonight into Tue. The merged
front will linger across the northern Gulf waters through Thu
night and lift N as a warm front Fri and Fri night. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front
during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico giving way to upper level divergence, with
anticyclonic flow to the north of the Greater Antilles bringing
moist southeasterly flow. This is bringing strong convection
across Cuba and Hispaniola and scattered showers over Puerto Rico.
There are isolated thunderstorms seen north of 18N and east of
77W, between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
seen in the eastern and southern Caribbean with gentle to moderate
trades in the western basin.

Fresh to strong trades are expected over the south-central
Caribbean through Sat night, with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat night. Otherwise, weak high pres N of the
area will support moderate to locally fresh trades across most of
the Caribbean during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is seen moving across the central Atlantic,
with an upper level ridge to the west of it. This is helping the
upper level trough over the northeast Gulf to dig across the area,
giving way to upper level divergence across the western Atlantic.
Scattered moderate convection is seen moving off of Cuba and
Hispaniola across the Bahamas and off the Florida coast. Most of
this activity is south of 26N and west of 68W. A surface trough
is extending from western Hispaniola into the Atlantic, from
18N73W to 23N70W. Surface ridging from a 1032 mb high pressure
near 39N24W is seen across the rest of the basin with tranquil
conditions.

Near-gale conditions are expected by Agadir, E of 30W over the
next few days. See Meteo-France for more detailed information on
this.

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters most of the forecast
period. A cold front will move off the SE United States Fri,
clipping the waters off NE Florida. Fresh SW winds will develop
over the far NW waters Wed night then diminish to moderate Thu.
Elsewhere over the area, gentle to moderate southerly winds will
generally prevail, except for moderate to fresh east winds S of
22N and E of 78W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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