[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Scattered to moderate
convection extends 280 to 300 nm north of the low center.
However, recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and poorly defined. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern
coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy
rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and
Louisiana through Thursday. Interests along the Gulf coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for
more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 20W from 11N southward. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is associated with this wave
from 08N-05N between 21W-13W.

A second tropical wave is along 39W from 12N southward. Isolated
convection is seen within the vicinity of this wave, mainly south
of 06N. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in
association with the wave.

A third tropical wave is along 56W from 13N southward. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the wave axis,
mainly south of 08N. The wave will help to enhance showers and
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
section of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N35W, then continues W of a
tropical wave from 04N40W to 03N50W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate strong convection is noted from near Africa from 09N-
07N between 16W-13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the special features section above for details on the broad
area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development. A surface trough extends
from this 1007 mb low from 24N97W to 19N93W. An area of strong
convection is beginning to move off the Yucatan and into the
western Bay of Campeche, south of 20N and west of 93W.

Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the Gulf of Mexico
with a high pressure of 1015 mb near 28N85W. This is bringing fair
weather conditions to the eastern half of the Gulf. Recent
ASCAT shows light to gentle winds under the high pressure in the
eastern Gulf. Along the northwestern Gulf coast, gentle to
moderate east-southeasterly winds are seen. Closer to the broad
low, fresh winds are seen from 24N-23N between 92W-94W.

Broad low pressure in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico will
drift NW toward Tampico Mexico through Tuesday, possibly
intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
ESE winds will persist south of a ridge in the northern Gulf of
Mexico through Tuesday night. The ridge will shift eastward on
Wednesday. Expect S to SE return flow for most of the basin
through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture persists across portions of the Lesser Antilles
in association with a mid-upper level trough over the eastern
Caribbean, and a surface trough that extends from 18N57W to
16N62W. Isolated thunderstorms continue to move near Guadeloupe.
In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough, located over
Panama, is inducing isolated showers and thunderstorms south of
12N and west of 78W. Generally fair weather prevails over the
central and NW Caribbean due to a mid- level ridge over the NW
Caribbean. In the northeast to northwest Caribbean, light to
gentle trades are observed. Moderate to fresh trades are north of
Venezuela and Colombia in addition to the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge to the north of the area, along 28N, will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea
through midweek. It is possible that a weak inverted trough may
develop to the north of Puerto Rico during the next few days, and
remain in the area until Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N79W to 28N79W. An upper- level
trough axis is along 68W is bringing upper- level diffluence. This
is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between
66W-71W. Farther south, a surface trough that extends from
Guadeloupe to near 16N62W is inducing scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm of the trough axis east of 55W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging,
anchored by a 1034 mb high near 44N38W.

A weak inverted trough may develop to the north of Puerto Rico
during the next few days and remain in the area until Friday. A
ridge will remain along 28N until at least Saturday. The ridge
will be broken up, intermittently, by the weak trough to the north
of Puerto Rico. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected
elsewhere in the forecast area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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